Heuristicsbeginner
IS-over-OF Heuristic for Percentages
A simple heuristic to calculate what percent one number is of another by placing the part over the whole and dividing.
education · mathematics↗
ONE OF SEVEN WAYS OF SEEING
Heuristics
Make useful decisions when time and information are limited.
Heuristicsintermediate
Isolate Him from the Rest of the Group
Erikson portrays people he labels Yellow as strongly preferring social interaction. His exaggerated description of isolation illustrates that model; individual working preferences still need to be checked.
business · psychology↗
Heuristicsintermediate
It Is Better to Fix Your Mistakes Faster Than You Can Make Them
Charlie Munger explains that while mistakes are inevitable, one can learn to make fewer mistakes than others and fix them faster. He illustrates this with the USAir investment example, highlighting the dangers of psychological denial and the consistency principle that lead people to throw good money after bad.
business · finance↗
Heuristicsintermediate
It Wasn’t Better Before. Onward and Upward.
In Erikson’s Red personality profile, a preference for change can make someone quick to adopt a better idea and equally quick to disrupt a working system. The useful tension is between improvement and the stability others need.
business · psychology↗
Heuristicsbeginner
It's Best to Think Everything All the Way Through from the Beginning
A Blue personality type prepares meticulously by analyzing details and developing alternative and contingency plans.
business · education↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Jootsing (Jumping Out of the System)
Hofstadter’s jootsing means jumping out of a system by questioning or breaking its rules. Dennett argues that knowing the system matters: a departure can be surprising and meaningful where random novelty is not.
philosophy · psychology↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Judgments of Disease Likelihood for Self
A table of individuals’ judgments about their own likelihood of disease.
psychology↗
Heuristicsbeginner
Keywords: The Underlying Architecture of Search
Effective search relies on choosing specific, relevant keywords that match the terms likely to appear in target documents, enabling search engines like Google to return precise results.
technology · education↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Know Your Customer
Understand customers' needs and perspectives, act as their advocate within your organization, and focus on long-term win-win relationships rather than short-term gains.
business · psychology↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Lateral Reading
Lateral reading is a strategy for evaluating online sources by leaving the site and searching for information about the source or its claims before relying on it, helping to distinguish credible sources from misleading ones.
media literacy · education↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Lateral Reading: Checking Information like a Fact-Checker
Lateral reading is a fact-checking strategy where you evaluate unfamiliar sources by opening multiple browser tabs to search for external information about the source, rather than spending time on the source itself.
technology · education↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Lateral Thinking
Lateral thinking is a deliberate method of using information to restructure patterns and generate new ideas, complementing traditional logical thinking by using provocation and challenging accepted concepts.
business · education↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Less Is More
The less-is-more heuristic in decision making suggests that simpler methods for forecasting and inference can be more effective than complicated ones, and that focusing on a few key factors often yields better results.
economics · philosophy↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Less Is More in Decision Theory
Heuristics are mental shortcuts that often outperform complex calculations. Examples from nature and human behavior show how simple approaches can support effective decisions, challenging the assumption that optimal choices require extensive computation.
sports science · decision science↗
Heuristicsbeginner
Let Greens Do Nothing
When Greens are stressed, allow them unstructured downtime with minimal demands so they can relax and recover naturally.
business · education↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Lettermanning (The Maybe You're the Problem Heuristic)
Consider whether your own actions contribute to your difficulties. Before offering someone else this perspective, make sure they have agreed to that kind of honest exchange.
personal_development · business↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Leveraging Serendipity to Overcome Creative Blocks
When creativity stalls, deliberately introducing randomness—through unplanned actions, new experiences, or surrendering to unpredictability—can spark fresh ideas and break through impasses, especially in fiction writing.
literature · psychology↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Lindy Effect
The Lindy Effect is a heuristic stating that the future life expectancy of non-perishable things (such as ideas, technologies, or cultural artifacts) is proportional to their current age: the longer something has survived, the longer it is likely to continue surviving. Time and survival provide a reliable filter for judging quality and expertise.
sociology · technology↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Listen to people who share your goals
When you share a common goal with someone, you are more likely to listen open-mindedly and learn from them, even if your broader worldviews differ significantly.
philosophy · business↗
Heuristicsbeginner
Listen to people you share intellectual common ground with
People are more receptive to arguments from those who share their intellectual background or values, as common ground builds trust and allows the arguer to frame their case in terms the listener already finds compelling.
politics · business↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Listen to the Stories People Are Telling
Anecdote circles invite employees and contractors to share concrete experiences of work. In the Cynefin approach, these stories help people interpret organizational dynamics and notice concerns that routine metrics may miss.
psychology · sociology↗
Heuristicsbeginner
Live with a Decision before Announcing It
A personal decision-making technique: after making a major choice, wait at least a day before sharing it, ideally writing down your reasoning to review later. This pause helps surface hidden flaws, emotional misgivings, and assumptions you might otherwise miss.
business · psychology↗
Heuristicsbeginner
Locating Knowledge Gaps
A heuristic for identifying and filling gaps in understanding by focusing on weak points, assumptions, and inconsistencies in one's knowledge, rather than avoiding them.
education · psychology↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Make a Plan
When facing an unpleasant truth or difficult decision, instead of resorting to denial or rationalization, create a hypothetical plan for how you would handle the situation if it were true. This reduces emotional resistance and clarifies your actual course of action.
self-help · education↗
Heuristicsbeginner
Make a Ritual
Set your intention by creating a daily ritual, ideally in the morning, to focus your mind before starting your day.
education · psychology↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Make an Agenda—Follow It!
A technique for difficult conversations that involves preparing concrete examples, anticipating objections, and sticking to a structured agenda to keep the discussion on track and avoid diversion.
business · psychology↗
Heuristicsbeginner
Make Clear That It’s Inappropriate to Joke at Work
Explicitly banning humor at work can drive away employees who value fun and lightness. In the example, a woman with a 'Yellow' personality type leaves a consulting firm for this reason.
business · psychology↗
Heuristicsbeginner
Make Yourself Aware of Your Intentions
A technique to increase self-awareness by setting daily reminders to consciously revisit your intentions, which helps rewire brain pathways for better alignment with goals.
education · psychology↗
Heuristicsbeginner
Making Use of “Wasted” Time
Instead of fretting over lost time, this heuristic encourages using moments like commuting or channel surfing for self-reflection and planning. By asking targeted questions, you can identify thinking patterns and improve productivity.
productivity · education↗
Heuristicsbeginner
Managing Stress for Reds
Erikson recommends direct instructions or physical activity for stressed people he classifies as Reds. He presents these as ways to redirect agitation and competitive energy.
business · psychology↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Materials for Teaching Lateral Thinking
This chapter discusses the use of trivial and artificial demonstrations to illustrate the process of lateral thinking, emphasizing that the process itself is more important than the product. It provides a guide on types and sources of materials—visual, verbal, problem, themes, anecdotes—and the importance of stockpiling them for effective teaching.
business · education↗
Heuristicsbeginner
Maxim 8 - Making Decisions Under Uncertainty
Consequential decisions rarely offer certainty. Recognizing that limit can help you move past impulsive action or paralysis and make a considered choice.
decision theory · business↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Maxims for Thinking Analytically
A set of analytical maxims that guide clear thinking by simplifying complex problems and embracing uncertainty, including going to extreme or simple cases and thinking probabilistically.
decision_making · philosophy↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Mind vs. Machine
The brain and a computer perform different kinds of work, so storage and speed analogies do not establish a general ranking between them. Chess illustrates a more useful distinction: a player can work backward from a promising position to the moves that might reach it, using the ends-and-means heuristic.
technology · neuroscience↗
Heuristicsbeginner
Mind-Mapping
A technique to visually connect ideas and abstract concepts, helping to summarize and create a mental image of relationships between nodes.
education · psychology↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Mini Habits
A mini habit is a deliberately small action repeated regularly, such as writing a few sentences or reading a page. Keeping the commitment manageable can make it easier to start on days when motivation is low and provide a basis for doing more.
psychology · education↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Minimalist
The Minimalist heuristic is a cue-based decision strategy that uses only the direction of cues (sign) without knowledge of their validity, selecting cues randomly until one discriminates between options.
statistics · decision-making↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Monte Carlo Mathematics
Monte Carlo methods use random sampling to solve mathematical problems, offering a brute-force alternative to analytical solutions. They are especially useful for providing intuition and are tied to foundational questions in probability and epistemology.
physics · science↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Monte Carlo Method
Monte Carlo methods use repeated random sampling to estimate quantities or explore possible outcomes. A simulation shows what follows from its assumptions about randomness; choosing those assumptions is part of the analysis.
science · finance↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo simulation samples repeatedly from a specified model to explore possible outcomes and their dispersion. It can help examine uncertainty, but its results depend on the model, inputs, and assumptions.
finance · mathematics↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Mood and Evaluative Judgment
The cited studies report that people in positive moods often evaluate products, people, and life circumstances more favorably than those in negative moods. The passage discusses both mood-congruent recall and using feelings as information.
business · economics↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Mood Heuristic
When assessing happiness, people often substitute an emotionally charged answer from a related question (e.g., about dating) for a thoughtful evaluation of overall life satisfaction, leading to biased judgments.
economics · psychology↗
Heuristicsbeginner
Multiple Perspectives
A heuristic that involves generating the points of view of everyone involved in a story or situation to reveal how the same event can be structured in different ways.
business · education↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Narrative Fallacy
Taleb’s story of Carlos, an emerging-market bond trader, illustrates the difficulty of separating skill from favorable market conditions. An impressive biography and a successful run can make a compelling explanation without establishing how much of the result came from ability.
finance · psychology↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Nero's Risk Aversion: Shooting for Longevity
Taleb’s portrait of Nero illustrates a preference for staying in the trading business over maximizing returns. Nero limits losses and avoids exposures he thinks could end his career, accepting lower profits in exchange for reducing the chance of ruin.
finance · economics↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Never waste a crisis
A heuristic that encourages deploying innovation teams alongside recovery teams during a crisis to capture novel practices and drive change.
psychology · sociology↗
Heuristicsintermediate
No Guts, No Belief (Doxastic Commitment)
Taleb’s practitioner ethos asks people to bear consequences for the ideas they advocate. He calls beliefs backed by personal action and risk doxastic commitment, while distinguishing that commitment from sufficient evidence that a belief is true.
science · business↗
Heuristicsintermediate
No Worship Without Skin in the Game
True belief or worship requires a tangible cost or sacrifice; it cannot be a free option. The concept emphasizes that 'skin in the game'—personal risk or sacrifice—is essential for authenticity and commitment in religious and non-religious contexts alike.
anthropology · sociology↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Noncompensatory Information
A noncompensatory set of weights in a linear model means each weight is larger than the sum of all smaller weights. Take the Best has equivalent accuracy when the order of cue validities matches the order of those weights.
psychology · decision science↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Norms & Standards
Norms and standards draw on shared professional experience. They include benchmarks for comparison, rules for acceptable behavior, and established procedures. Assess their usefulness, credibility, independence, and impartiality before using them as evidence.
business · economics↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Nudging
A nudge changes how a choice is presented while leaving alternatives available. The Lake Shore Drive example uses road markings to influence drivers’ sense of speed and encourage braking.
business · economics↗
Heuristicsintermediate
On Wisdom and Learning from the Best
Munger advocates studying what capable thinkers have already worked out. His advice emphasizes accuracy, curiosity, and disciplined learning from others.
education · business↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Once More, Less Is More
Taleb argues that practice can reveal simple discoveries that elaborate methods overlook. He uses suitcase wheels to criticize institutions for rewarding complicated, conspicuous innovations.
science · business↗
Heuristicsbeginner
Ooch
Ooching means running a small trial before making a larger commitment. It is useful when the trial can answer a relevant question at modest cost, but can become a way to postpone a decision whose uncertainty has already been addressed.
decision_making · business↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Ooching
Ooching is the strategy of testing a hypothesis through small, low-cost experiments before making a big commitment, allowing you to gather real-world evidence and reduce uncertainty.
education · decision science↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Optimal Stopping
Optimal stopping is a mathematical framework for deciding when to stop evaluating options in a sequential search, balancing the trade-off between exploring new opportunities and committing to a current one. The 37% Rule, derived from the secretary problem, advises looking at the first 37% of options to set a threshold, then selecting the next best option that exceeds it.
economics · psychology↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Outrage Heuristic
The outrage heuristic proposes that feelings of outrage help shape punitive-damages judgments. In the study described here, harm affected dollar awards more than explicit ratings of outrageousness, prompting the authors to distinguish an emotional response from a deliberate evaluation of conduct.
law · economics↗
Heuristicsbeginner
Overlapping Circles
Drawing overlapping circles can help you explore connections among concepts and create a visual cue for remembering them.
education · psychology↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Pattern-Matching Tripwires
A pattern-matching tripwire gives people permission to raise a concern or flag an opportunity before they can express it as a precise measurement. At the children’s hospital described here, a nurse’s worry was a reason to call for help alongside objective signs of deterioration.
medicine · business↗
Heuristicsintermediate
Per Lindy (Beard Heuristic)
Taleb’s beard aphorism uses age as a symbol of experience when weighing reasoning and conclusions. It is a heuristic about judgment, not evidence that an older speaker is correct.
education · philosophy↗