Undercorrection
People predicting their affective responses over time often imagine their initial reaction and then adjust for time passage, but tend to undercorrect, leading to a durability bias.
THE IDEA
When people attempt to predict the duration of their affective responses (“How would I feel a week after getting fired?”), they may first imagine their initial affective response (“As soon as I saw the pink slip, I’d crawl under my desk and weep”) and then correct for the passage of time (“But I guess eventually I’d get up, go home, and make popcorn”; Gilbert, Gill, & Wilson, in press). Experiments in a variety of domains indicate that when judgments are made in this fashion, they tend to suffer from undercorrection (Gilbert, 1991; Tversky & Kahneman, 1974), and people seem especially susceptible to this problem when correcting their predictions for the passage of time (Kahneman & Snell, 1992; Prelec & Loewenstein, 1997; Read & Loewenstein, 1995). Because affective reactions are generally most intense at the onset, the tendency to undercorrect a prediction of one’s initial reaction typically produces a durability bias.
When to use it
Predicting emotional impact of a future life event (e.g., moving, divorce, promotion)
Making decisions about career changes based on expected long-term happiness
Comparing a predicted mood after a setback with the mood experienced later.
Planning interventions for people who overestimate the duration of negative emotions after a setback
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Predicting reaction to job loss
A person imagines their immediate devastation upon being fired ('I'd crawl under my desk and weep') and then adjusts for time passage ('But I guess eventually I’d get up, go home, and make popcorn'). If that adjustment is too small, the person overestimates how long the initial intensity will last.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Think of a recent major disappointment (e.g., not getting a job, a breakup). How did you predict you would feel a week later? Did the actual feelings match your prediction?
How might undercorrection affect forecasts of positive as well as negative emotions?
How could you improve your affective forecasts by considering the correction process?
References
- — Gilbert, Gill, & Wilson
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Heuristics and Biases The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel Kahneman)