Durability Bias
Durability bias is overestimating how long an emotional response will last. In the reported 1994 Texas election study, supporters of the losing candidate predicted lower happiness a month later than they subsequently reported.
THE IDEA
THE ELECTION STUDY
Durability bias occurs when people overestimate how long an event will affect their feelings. The passage describes field studies of an election and academic tenure decisions.
Before the 1994 Texas gubernatorial election, supporters of Ann Richards predicted that losing would reduce their general happiness a month later. After her defeat, these “Losers” reported greater happiness than they had predicted, with levels similar to their pre-election baseline. Supporters of George W. Bush (“Winners”) had predicted little change following a victory. The reported forecasting error was therefore concentrated among supporters anticipating a loss.
The tenure study compared assistant professors’ forecasts with reports from people who had already received or been denied tenure. Forecasters estimated happiness in the short term (1–5 years) and long term (6–10 years). The passage reports larger discrepancies for the nearer period: anticipated differences in happiness were greater than those reported by the groups who had experienced the decisions. Longer-term forecasts were closer to those reports.
The tenure comparison concerns different groups, so it does not by itself track how any individual’s feelings changed over time. Both studies nevertheless illustrate a useful forecasting question: how much of future life will be occupied by the event currently dominating attention? Adaptation is one possible explanation for a discrepancy, rather than a guarantee that a particular person’s distress will fade quickly.
When to use it
When deciding whether to pursue a promotion or change jobs, consider that the emotional impact may be less lasting than you expect.
When supporting a friend through a difficult event, ask what they need now rather than assume their distress will last for a particular length of time.
When reflecting on past disappointments, compare your predicted emotional duration with what you actually remember experiencing.
Making career decisions: When considering a job rejection, remind yourself that the emotional impact may be less long-lasting than you expect.
Political elections: After a candidate you support loses, recognize that your disappointment may fade faster than anticipated.
Personal relationships: distinguish the predicted intensity of sadness after a breakup from the predicted time needed to recover.
Health decisions: When anticipating the emotional impact of a medical diagnosis, consider that adaptation may occur more quickly than predicted.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Positive Tenure Decision
Assistant professors forecasted they would be very happy in the first few years after receiving tenure, but those who actually received tenure reported lower happiness levels than predicted.
Negative Tenure Decision
Assistant professors forecasted they would be very unhappy in the first few years after being denied tenure, but those who were denied reported higher happiness levels than predicted.
Texas Gubernatorial Election Study
In 1994, researchers studied voters in the Texas gubernatorial election between Ann Richards and George W. Bush. Voters predicted how happy they would be a month after the election if their candidate won or lost. One month later, losers were significantly happier than they had predicted, demonstrating the durability bias.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Think of a major positive or negative event you anticipated. How did your actual emotional reaction compare to your prediction?
Why might people overestimate the duration of their emotional responses to events?
How can awareness of the durability bias help you make better decisions about major life changes?
Think of a time when you experienced a negative outcome (e.g., failing an exam, being rejected). How did your predicted emotional impact compare to your actual feelings a week or month later?
What experiences might occupy your attention after the event you are currently focused on?
How would your decision change if you separated the event’s practical consequences from its predicted emotional duration?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Heuristics and Biases The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel Kahneman)
- Heuristics and Biases The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel Kahneman)