The Hot Hand Fallacy
The belief that a player is more likely to make the next shot after several consecutive successes, even when the streak may reflect chance.
THE IDEA
STUDY 2: PROFESSIONAL BASKETBALL FIELD GOAL DATA
Field goal records of individual players were obtained for 48 home games of the Philadelphia 76ers and their opponents during the 1980–1981 season. These data were recorded by the team’s statistician. Records of consecutive shots for individual players were not available for other teams in the NBA. Our analysis of these data divides into three parts. First we examine the probability of a hit conditioned on players’ recent histories of hits and misses, second we investigate the frequency of different sequences of hits and misses in players’ shooting records, and third we analyze the stability of players’ performance records across games.
When to use it
Analyzing player performance streaks in basketball to avoid overvaluing recent success.
Evaluating investment streaks where a fund manager has several good years—can it be attributed to skill or luck?
In game design, considering how players might perceive streaks (e.g., in loot boxes or skill checks) and whether to adjust for fairness.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Basketball Streak
A player makes 3 consecutive shots; fans and commentators believe he is 'hot' and will make the fourth. The streak alone does not establish that his chance of making the next shot has increased.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Can you think of a situation where you assumed a streak would continue, only to be proven wrong?
How does the hot hand fallacy affect decision-making in sports betting or player evaluation?
Why is it difficult for people to accept that random sequences can produce streaks without underlying causes?
Often confused with
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Heuristics and Biases The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel Kahneman)