Inversion (Thinking Backward)
Inversion is a mental model that involves solving problems by considering the opposite of what you want to achieve. By inverting the question, you can uncover hidden solutions and avoid common pitfalls.
THE IDEA
Inversion (Thinking Backward)
Inversion approaches a problem by asking what would produce an unwanted outcome. Identifying those actions can reveal obstacles and risks to avoid while pursuing the desired result.
The concept is illustrated by Johnny Carson's Harvard School commencement speech in 1986, where he told graduates he couldn't tell them how to be happy, but he could tell them from personal experience how to guarantee misery. His three prescriptions were: (1) ingesting chemicals to alter mood or perception, (2) envy, and (3) resentment. Charlie Munger later expanded on this with four additional prescriptions for misery:
- Be unreliable – Do not faithfully do what you have engaged to do. This will counterbalance all your virtues and lead to distrust and exclusion.
- Learn only from your own experience – Minimize learning vicariously from others’ mistakes, leading to second-rate achievement.
- Stay down after setbacks – When you encounter severe adversity, give up and remain stuck.
- Ignore inversion – Dismiss the wisdom of the rustic who said, "I wish I knew where I was going to die, and then I'd never go there."
The mathematician Jacobi repeated, "Invert, always invert." Similarly, Einstein used self-criticism and a backward approach to develop special relativity. Charles Darwin also practiced inversion by giving priority attention to evidence that disconfirmed his cherished theories.
When to use it
Business strategy: Identify what would cause your company to fail and create plans to avoid those actions.
Personal development: List habits that lead to unhappiness (e.g., envy, resentment) and eliminate them.
Investment: Instead of seeking high returns, focus on avoiding losses by inverting the question of what makes a bad investment.
Problem-solving: When stuck, ask 'How can I make this problem worse?' and then do the opposite.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Johnny Carson's Prescriptions for Misery
Johnny Carson told graduates that to guarantee misery, one should ingest chemicals, cultivate envy, and harbor resentment. By inverting the goal of happiness, he provided clear behaviors to avoid.
Darwin's Objectivity through Inversion
Charles Darwin actively sought evidence that contradicted his theories, inverting the typical confirmation bias. This allowed him to refine his ideas and achieve groundbreaking insights in evolution.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
What is a current problem you are facing? How would you reframe it by asking how to achieve the worst possible outcome, and what does that tell you about what to avoid?
Think of a time when you were stuck on a problem. Could inversion have helped you see a new path?
In your personal or professional life, what behaviors or habits are likely to guarantee failure? How can you systematically avoid them?
Often confused with
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Poor Charlie's Almanack