I Don’t Want to Be a Turkey
This concept emphasizes practical skepticism in decision-making to avoid being blindsided by rare, high-impact events (Black Swans). It advocates for aggressive risk-taking while avoiding blindfolded risks, contrasting with extreme philosophical skepticism that leads to withdrawal.
THE IDEA
I Don’t Want to Be a Turkey
But promoting philosophical skepticism is not quite the mission of this book. If awareness of the Black Swan problem can lead us into withdrawal and extreme skepticism, I take here the exact opposite direction. I am interested in deeds and true empiricism. So, this book was not written by a Sufi mystic, or even by a skeptic in the ancient or medieval sense, or even (we will see) in a philosophical sense, but by a practitioner whose principal aim is to not be a sucker in things that matter, period.
Hume was radically skeptical in the philosophical cabinet, but abandoned such ideas when it came to daily life, since he could not handle them. I am doing here the exact opposite: I am skeptical in matters that have implications for daily life. In a way, all I care about is making a decision without being the turkey.
Many middlebrows have asked me over the past twenty years, “How do you, Taleb, cross the street given your extreme risk consciousness?” or have stated the more foolish “You are asking us to take no risks.” Of course I am not advocating total risk phobia (we will see that I favor an aggressive type of risk taking): all I will be showing you in this book is how to avoid crossing the street blindfolded.
When to use it
Investment: Avoid assuming past market performance predicts future stability; prepare for crashes.
Personal decisions: Don't assume your current job is safe based on past job security; prepare for unexpected layoffs.
Business planning: When launching a product, don't base projections solely on past successes; consider disruptive events.
Career: Don't become complacent in a routine job that might become obsolete suddenly.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
The Turkey
A turkey is fed every day for 1000 days, making it confident in its safety. On day 1001, it is slaughtered. The turkey's past experience failed to predict the rare event.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
In what areas of your life are you like a turkey, extrapolating from past experience without considering rare events?
How can you adopt practical skepticism without falling into paralysis or extreme risk aversion?
What risks are you currently taking 'blindfolded' that you could address with better awareness of Black Swans?
Often confused with
References
- Hume's Skepticism — David Hume
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable With a new section On Robustness and Fragility (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)