Has the Thinking and Level of Discussion About Strategic and Endemic Problems Got to the Right Level?
Complex problems require systems-based analysis to understand underlying causal factors; treating them as merely complicated leads to frustration. There is a tendency to focus on tangible threats rather than root causes across domains.
THE IDEA
Has the Thinking and Level of Discussion About Strategic and Endemic Problems Got to the Right Level?
Where countries have experienced long-standing challenges with crime, drug taking, illegal immigration, habitat destruction, etc., consider whether a systems-based analysis has been carried out to understand why it's proving hard to make progress. Check which assumptions have been made and which factors have been left out. A method suited to a complicated but predictable process may miss the changing interactions that sustain a complex problem.15
Looking at the infrastructure investments we will need to make to help prepare the world for the inevitable climate changes that are already (sadly) baked in: Are enough steps being taken to design resilience (e.g. thermal properties of buildings, solar panels, EV charge points, avoiding the risk of flooding, etc.)? After all, if we don't think about these issues now, think of the cost and disruption we will face in the decades ahead upgrading, rebuilding or relocating facilities.
Poorer nations face urgent demands for food, housing, and education alongside longer-term risks such as deforestation and dependence on fossil fuels. Understanding how these pressures interact requires data, time, and resources that may already be stretched.
There is interesting work going on in various institutions (such as Cambridge, UK, and Stamford, USA) and a range of international bodies, including in the UN, looking at some of the existential threats that we face.16 Alongside named threats such as climate change, pandemics, and AI, examine factors shared across domains: limited resources and skills, unclear responsibilities, and conflicting goals. Bringing together different areas of expertise may reveal connections that a single specialty misses. Thomas M Nichols’s 'Our Own Worst Enemy' also raises questions about how our own mindsets contribute to the problems we face.17
Alongside all of this, we should be encouraging more explicit sharing of causal loop diagrams with one another, as an aid to discussion and debate. Fortunately, at the time of finishing this book in summer 2023, there are signs systems analysis tools are being increasingly used to understand 'complex and wicked' problems:
- Concerning CV19: 'Developing a preliminary causal loop diagram for understanding the wicked complexity of the COVID-19 pandemic'.18
- Concerning climate change and bioenergy: 'Using systems thinking and causal loop diagrams to identify cascading climate change impacts on bioenergy supply systems'.19
- Concerning child poverty in Scotland: 'Child poverty system map'.20
When to use it
Planning infrastructure to be resilient to climate change, considering long-term risks and cross-domain impacts.
Addressing child poverty through systems mapping to identify leverage points for effective intervention.
Understanding the complexity of a pandemic response, including feedback loops between public health measures and economic outcomes.
Identifying cascading impacts of climate change on supply chains, using causal loop diagrams to anticipate secondary effects.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
COVID-19 pandemic complexity
Developing a preliminary causal loop diagram to understand the wicked complexity of the COVID-19 pandemic, illustrating how systems thinking can reveal interdependencies and feedback loops.
Climate change and bioenergy impacts
Using systems thinking and causal loop diagrams to identify cascading climate change impacts on bioenergy supply systems, showing how a systems approach can uncover secondary and tertiary effects.
Child poverty in Scotland
Creating a child poverty system map to analyze the multiple interacting factors contributing to persistent child poverty, demonstrating the need for systemic interventions.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Think of a long-standing challenge in your organization or community. Have you considered whether it is a complex problem being treated as complicated? What underlying causal factors might be overlooked?
What 'tangible threats' do you typically focus on, and what root causes or systemic drivers might you be ignoring?
How could a causal loop diagram help illuminate the dynamics of a problem you are facing, and what would be the first steps to create one?
References
- Our Own Worst Enemy — Thomas M. Nichols
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Beyond the Five Whys Root Cause Analysis and Systems Thinking (James C. Paterson)