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Decision Frameworks

WRAP Decision Model

The WRAP model provides a structured process to counteract decision-making biases by widening options, reality-testing assumptions, attaining distance before deciding, and preparing to be wrong. It guides individuals to explore alternatives, gather evidence, gain perspective, and set safeguards for decisions.

THE IDEA

How can you make a good decision?

Suppose your software company is trying to win government clients. A sales representative, Tom, argues that prices must fall to close deals. Here is how WRAP can help you examine that proposal.

• Widen Your Options. It’s important not to be framed by Tom’s complaints into a narrow decision about “whether or not” to reduce price. Price isn’t the only variable that explains why customers buy. What other options do you have? If none comes immediately to mind, do your “laddering.” First look internally at your bright spots. You’ve already closed a few accounts; what can you learn from those successes? Then you can ladder up and see what other software firms are doing in the government market. What seems to work for them? Laddering further up, you might study any product that is sold both to corporations and to government agencies. What are the differences in how the products are configured and sold? Maybe you’d learn, for instance, that government customers expect more hands-on service than do your savvy tech clients. In short, you shouldn’t fixate on pricing before you have more data. You need more options and more information.

• Reality-Test Your Assumptions. First, ooch: run a small trial. Give Tom the leeway to offer substantial discounts to one or two customers. See what happens. Why guess when you can know? Simultaneously, try considering the opposite: If the theory is that price is the problem, go looking for evidence that price is not the problem. For example, you could ask your other sales rep to charge a higher price—but one that includes an extensive service package. A few experiments with higher and lower pricing should tell you a lot. As you run these experiments, gather more information by zooming out and zooming in. To zoom out, you might look for third parties—market research companies, for instance—who could tell you whether software companies typically discount for government clients, and if so, how much. (That would be a flavor of “base rate.”) Also, you could zoom in by joining your sales reps for a few customer visits. Meeting your clients personally and hearing their feedback would give you some much-needed texture on the situation.

• Attain Distance Before Deciding. You aren’t ready to make a decision here. You need better information and more options first. That said, if Tom turns out to be right, you may have competing core priorities on your hands: Should you slash prices (cutting profits) for the sake of building a base of government clients? Is the core priority market share or profit margin? It’s worth sounding out your leaders for their perspective.

• Prepare to Be Wrong. Without knowing your decision, it’s hard to prepare for the aftermath. But you can almost always set a tripwire. For instance, you could set a limit on the experiments you’re trying with your salespeople. You might work with Tom on an appropriate tripwire—i.e., if he hasn’t closed a deal in two months, given the freedom to discount the price as he requested, then you’ll both agree to try a different approach.

When to use it

  • Evaluating whether to change a product's pricing or feature set based on customer feedback.

  • Deciding between multiple job offers or career paths by widening options and testing assumptions with short-term projects.

  • Choosing a marketing strategy for a new market by conducting small-scale tests and setting thresholds for change.

  • Making a personal financial decision (e.g., buying vs. renting) by gathering base rates and setting a tripwire for reevaluation.

FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE

In practice

01

Pricing Decision for Government Clients

Tom, a sales rep, says lower prices are the only way to win government clients. Widen the options by considering service packages and a different sales approach. Test the pricing assumption with small offers at different prices and service levels. Consult leadership about the trade-off between market share and profit margin. Set a tripwire: if no deal closes in two months, try a different approach.

✳

A MOMENT TO REFLECT

Put it to work.

  1. In a current decision you face, what options have you not considered? How could you use laddering or bright spots to widen them?

  2. What core assumption are you making? How could you run a small experiment (ooch) to test it without committing fully?

  3. What tripwire could you set now to alert you if your decision goes off course?

Connected ideas

Another lens can bring the same problem into focus.

Often confused with

References

  1. Decisive: How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work — Chip Heath and Dan Heath (2013)

CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION

Source texts

  • Decisive How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work (Chip Heath)
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