Wishful Thinking
The cognitive bias where the desire for something to be true is used as evidence for its truth, often leading to distorted evaluation of evidence based on desired outcomes.
THE IDEA
Wishful Thinking
(also known as: appeal to consequences [form of])
Description: When the desire for something to be true is used in place of or as evidence for the truthfulness of the claim. Wishful thinking, more as a cognitive bias than a logical fallacy, can also cause one to evaluate evidence very differently based on the desired outcome.
Logical Form:
- Person X desires that Y is true.
- Therefore, Y is true.
Example #1:
- Person: "I know the home team is going to win because I feel it in my heart of hearts."
- Explanation: No, you don’t know that. And what the heck is 'heart of hearts' anyway? This is classic wishful thinking – wanting the home team to win so pretending that it is or has to be true.
Example #2:
- Person: "I don't like the idea of simply not existing after death, so there must be an afterlife."
- Explanation: The fact that one doesn’t like the idea of simply not existing is not evidence for the belief. Besides, nobody seemed to mind the eternity they didn’t exist before they were born.
Exception: When wishful thinking is expressed as a hope, wish, or prayer, and no belief is formed as a result, then it is not a fallacy because no direct or indirect argument is being made.
Tip: Wishing for something to be true is a powerful technique when and only when, a) you have influence on what it is you want to be true and b) you take action to make it come true – not just wish for it to be true.
When to use it
Investing: Expecting a stock to rise because you want it to, ignoring negative indicators.
Relationships: Believing a partner will change because you hope for it, despite contrary evidence.
Politics: Assuming your preferred candidate will win based on your support, not on polling data.
Science: Interpreting experimental results to confirm a desired hypothesis.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Home team winning
When someone says 'I know the home team will win because I feel it in my heart of hearts,' it is wishful thinking because they are using their desire for the outcome as evidence.
Belief in afterlife
The claim 'I don't like the idea of simply not existing after death, so there must be an afterlife' uses dislike of nonexistence as evidence for the belief, which is irrational.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Can you identify a time when your desire for an outcome influenced your evaluation of evidence?
How can you distinguish between wishful thinking and hopeful action?
What steps can you take to avoid wishful thinking in your decision-making process?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Logically Fallacious - The Ultimate Collection of Over 300 Logical Fallacies