There Is No Such Thing as Public Opinion
Public opinion is often contradictory and inconsistent, with people simultaneously expressing support for broad goals like cutting spending while opposing cuts to specific programs they favor, making it difficult to discern a coherent public will.
THE IDEA
THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS PUBLIC OPINION
You’re a good citizen of the United States of America, or some other more or less liberal democracy. Or maybe you’re even an elected official. You think the government should, when possible, respect the people’s will. So you want to know: What do the people want?
Sometimes you can poll the hell out of the people and it’s still tough to be sure. For example: Do Americans want small government? Well, sure we do—we say so constantly. In a January 2011 CBS News poll, 77% of respondents said cutting spending was the best way to handle the federal budget deficit, against only 9% who preferred raising taxes. That result isn’t just a product of the current austerity vogue—year in, year out, the American people would rather cut government programs than pay more taxes.
But which government programs? That’s where things get sticky. It turns out the things the U.S. government spends money on are things people kind of like. A Pew Research poll from February 2011 asked Americans about thirteen categories of government spending: in eleven of those categories, deficit or no deficit, more people wanted to increase spending than dial it down. Only foreign aid and unemployment insurance—which, combined, accounted for under 5% of 2010 spending—got the ax. That, too, agrees with years of data; the average American is always eager to slash foreign aid, occasionally tolerant of cuts to welfare or defense, and pretty gung ho for increased spending on every single other program our taxes fund.
Oh, yeah, and we want small government.
At the state level, the inconsistency is just as bad. Respondents to the Pew poll overwhelmingly favored a combination of cutting programs and raising taxes to balance state budgets. Next question: What about cutting funding for education, health care, transportation, or pensions? Or raising sales taxes, state income tax, or taxes on business? Not a single option drew majority support.
“The most plausible reading of this data is that the public wants a free lunch,” economist Bryan Caplan wrote. “They hope to spend less on government without touching any of its main functions.”
Nobel Prize–winning economist Paul Krugman: “People want spending cut, but are opposed to cuts in anything except foreign aid. . . . The conclusion is inescapable: Republicans have a mandate to repeal the laws of arithmetic.”
The summary of a February 2011 Harris poll on the budget describes the self-negating public attitude toward the budget more colorfully: “Many people seem to want to cut down the forest but to keep the trees.”
It’s an unflattering portrait of the American public. Either we are babies, unable to grasp that budget cuts will inevitably reduce funding to programs we support; or we are mulish, irrational children, who understand the math but refuse to accept it.
How are you supposed to know what the public wants when the public makes no sense?
When to use it
Interpreting opinion polls for policy-making: Recognize that aggregated survey responses may mask deep contradictions, so require follow-up questions on trade-offs.
Political communication: Understand that the public may endorse general goals (e.g., 'cut spending') while opposing specific implementations, so frame proposals carefully.
Strategic planning for advocacy: Identify which specific programs have broad support and which are widely opposed, anticipating that global calls for austerity may not translate into actual cuts.
Academic research: When studying public opinion, use methods that probe consistency (e.g., conjoint analysis) rather than simple agree/disagree questions.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Federal Budget Cuts vs. Program Support
In a January 2011 CBS News poll, 77% of respondents said cutting spending was the best way to handle the federal budget deficit. Yet a February 2011 Pew Research poll showed that in 11 out of 13 categories of government spending, more people wanted to increase spending than decrease it. Only foreign aid and unemployment insurance (under 5% of spending) were broadly opposed. Respondents wanted smaller government while supporting nearly all spending programs.
State Budget Balancing Preferences
Pew poll respondents overwhelmingly favored a combination of cutting programs and raising taxes to balance state budgets. However, when asked about specific cuts to education, health care, transportation, or pensions—or raising sales taxes, income taxes, or business taxes—no single option received majority support. This reveals a desire to cut spending without specifying which cuts to make.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Think of a current political issue where polls show conflicting preferences. What underlying contradictions might explain the data?
When you personally hold a strong opinion on a policy, do you also support the specific trade-offs required to implement it? Why or why not?
How might elected officials use the inconsistency of public opinion to justify policies that actually reflect their own agendas rather than the public's will?
References
- CBS News Poll on Federal Budget Deficit (January 2011) — CBS News (2011)
- Pew Research Poll on Government Spending (February 2011) — Pew Research Center (2011)
- Harris Poll on Budget (February 2011) — Harris Interactive (2011)
- Commentary on public opinion data — Bryan Caplan (2011)
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- How Not to Be Wrong The Power of Mathematical Thinking (Ellenberg, Jordan)