The Durability Bias
The durability bias is the tendency to overestimate how long emotional reactions to events will last. Research shows that even major life events often have less impact on long-term happiness than expected.
THE IDEA
THE DURABILITY BIAS
How long can feelings be expected to endure? The source illustrates the question with a professor receiving good news from Sweden or bad news from a university administration. It suggests that the emotional response would fade sooner than the professor might predict. Common events typically influence people’s subjective well-being for little more than a few months (Suh, Fujita, & Diener, 1996; Wortman & Silver, 1989), and even uncommon events – such as losing a child in a car accident, getting cancer, becoming paralyzed, or being sent to a concentration camp – seem to have less impact on long-term happiness than one might naively expect (e.g., Affleck & Tennen, 1996; Brickman, Coates, & Janoff-Bulman, 1978; Collins, Taylor, & Skokan, 1990; Diener, 1994; Helmreich, 1992; Kahana, Harel, & Kahana, 1988; Lehman et al., 1993; Suedfeld, 1997; Taylor, 1983; Taylor & Armor, 1996; Wortman & Silver, 1987). The causes of stability in subjective well-being are not fully understood (McCrae & Costa, 1994). The authors interpret these findings as evidence that people often adapt more than they expect; they do not establish a recovery timetable for an individual.
Durability bias is the tendency to overestimate how long an emotional response will last. The forecasting error concerns the duration of the response; recognizing it does not imply that a major event has no lasting consequences.
When to use it
When weighing a move for a job, considering how everyday routines and relationships could affect life after the initial excitement or disappointment.
After a breakup, comparing expectations about future feelings with past experiences of change and adaptation.
When considering retirement or marriage, distinguishing the initial emotional response from the ongoing circumstances the change would create.
Evaluating the true long-term impact of purchasing a luxury item or experiencing a windfall.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Professor's Phone Call
In the authors’ illustration, a professor receives either welcome news from Sweden or unwelcome news from the administration. The prediction is that the resulting joy or disappointment will fade sooner than expected; this is not a reported observation of a particular professor.
Major Life Adversity
The cited literature discusses adaptation after severe adversity, including bereavement, illness, and trauma. The authors use it to question forecasts of permanent unhappiness, while individual experiences and lasting consequences can differ.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Think of a past event that you thought would affect your happiness for a long time. How did it actually affect you?
Why might people overestimate the duration of their emotional reactions to both positive and negative events?
How can understanding the durability bias help you make better decisions about major life changes?
References
- Suh, Fujita, & Diener (1996) — Suh, E., Fujita, F., & Diener, E. (1996)
- Wortman & Silver (1989) — Wortman, C. B. & Silver, R. C. (1989)
- Affleck & Tennen (1996) — Affleck, G. & Tennen, H. (1996)
- Brickman, Coates, & Janoff-Bulman (1978) — Brickman, P., Coates, D., & Janoff-Bulman, R. (1978)
- Collins, Taylor, & Skokan (1990) — Collins, R. L., Taylor, S. E., & Skokan, L. A. (1990)
- Diener (1994) — Diener, E. (1994)
- Helmreich (1992) — Helmreich, R. L. (1992)
- Kahana, Harel, & Kahana (1988) — Kahana, B., Harel, Z., & Kahana, E. (1988)
- Lehman et al. (1993) — Lehman, D. R., et al. (1993)
- Suedfeld (1997) — Suedfeld, P. (1997)
- Taylor (1983) — Taylor, S. E. (1983)
- Taylor & Armor (1996) — Taylor, S. E. & Armor, D. A. (1996)
- McCrae & Costa (1994) — McCrae, R. R. & Costa, P. T. (1994)
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Heuristics and Biases The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel Kahneman)