The Breakup Study
This study compared students’ forecasts of happiness in a future relationship with happiness reported by students already in relationships. The excerpt reports similar forecasts and group averages for falling in love; it describes the breakup groups without providing their results.
THE IDEA
THE BREAKUP STUDY
We asked a large group of college students to report their general happiness ("In general, how happy would you say you are these days?") on a 7-point scale that ranged from "not happy" to "very happy." The students were then asked whether they were currently involved in a close romantic relationship, which was defined for them as an exclusive, monogamous relationship that both partners expected would endure for a significant period. Participants who indicated that they were currently involved in such a relationship ("Lovers") then reported how long they had been in the relationship. Participants who indicated that they were not involved in a close romantic relationship ("Loners") predicted how happy in general they thought they would be 6 months after becoming involved in such a relationship. Students were also asked whether they had ever experienced the breakup of a close romantic relationship. Participants who indicated that they had experienced such a breakup ("Leftovers") then reported how long ago the breakup had occurred. Participants who indicated that they had not experienced such a breakup ("Luckies") predicted how happy in general they thought they would be 2 months after experiencing such a breakup.
Of the 532 participants, 334 (62.8%) reported that they were not currently in a close romantic relationship and were thus classified as Loners; 141 participants (26.5%) reported that they had been in such a relationship for more than 6 months and were thus classified as Old Lovers, and 57 participants (10.7%) reported that they had been in such a relationship for 6 months or less and were thus classified as Young Lovers; 194 (36.5%) reported that they had not experienced a breakup and were thus classified as Luckies; 302 participants (56.8%) reported that they experienced a breakup more than 2 months ago and were thus classified as Old Leftovers; and 36 participants (6.8%) reported that they had experienced a breakup 2 months ago or even more recently and were thus classified as Young Leftovers.
Consider first the experience of falling in love. As the top portion of Table 16.1 shows, Loners were less happy than either Young Lovers or Old Lovers, which suggests that being involved in a close romantic relationship may indeed increase one's happiness. Loners seemed to know this inasmuch as they predicted that 6 months after falling in love they would be significantly happier than they currently were. Finally, Loners' forecasts of how much happier they would be 6 months after becoming Lovers were reasonably accurate inasmuch as their forecasts did not differ from the experiences of Young Lovers or from the experiences of Old Lovers. In short, (a) Lovers were happier than Loners; (b) Loners expected that becoming involved in a close romantic relationship would increase their happiness; and (c) Loners correctly predicted that if they were to become Lovers they would be just about as happy as Old Lovers and Young Lovers actually turned out to be. It is worth noting that there were no differences between the forecasts of Loners who had never experienced a romantic breakup and Loners who had.
When to use it
When deciding whether to enter a new relationship, predicting future happiness to guide decisions.
When advising a friend about a breakup, considering their potential emotional recovery over time.
In life planning, anticipating emotional responses to life changes to make better choices.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Study Design
Students reported or predicted happiness according to their relationship and breakup experience. In the results included here, students outside relationships predicted happiness levels similar to those reported by students in relationships. The excerpt does not include breakup findings.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
How accurately do you think you can predict your happiness after a future relationship event?
Think of a time you predicted how you would feel after a breakup. Was your prediction more optimistic or pessimistic than reality?
What can a comparison between one group’s forecasts and another group’s reports tell you, and what would require following the same people over time?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Heuristics and Biases The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel Kahneman)