Scenario Generation Effect (Simulation Heuristic)
Generating reasons or imagining a sequence of events can affect an outcome’s perceived likelihood. The described study tests whether listing personal risk factors changes risk judgments, but its results are not included.
THE IDEA
Study 4
Several studies have shown that generating reasons why some outcome might occur (Hoch, 1984; Levi & Pryor, 1987; Sherman, Skov, Hervitz, & Stock, 1981) or generating a series of events (a scenario) that might lead to this outcome (Anderson, 1983; Carroll, 1978; Gregory, Cialdini, & Carpenter, 1982) increases the perceived likelihood that the event will actually take place.
Study 4 attempted to alter risk judgments by having subjects generate their own list of factors that might lead themselves to develop (or that would keep them from developing) a weight or drinking problem. It was expected that participants listing risk-increasing factors would subsequently judge themselves more at risk (and those listing risk-decreasing factors judge themselves less at risk) than would control-group participants who estimated their risk without listing any risk factorsThe excerpt does not report the study’s results. .
When to use it
Risk communication campaigns can frame messages to highlight either risk-increasing or risk-decreasing factors to influence public perception.
In negotiations, presenting a vivid scenario of a successful deal can make the outcome seem more likely.
Checking whether considering only positive or only negative scenarios changes a risk estimate.
Financial advisors should be aware that clients may overestimate risks that are easy to imagine.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Hypothetical Health Risk Judgment
Suppose someone lists reasons they might develop a weight problem and then estimates a higher personal risk. The example illustrates the proposed effect; it is not a result reported for the study in the excerpt.
Investment Decisions
An investor who easily imagines a series of events leading to a market crash may overestimate the crash's probability and make overly conservative decisions.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Recall a time when you estimated the likelihood of an event. Did your ability to imagine scenarios influence that estimate?
How might this effect lead to biased risk assessments in medical or financial contexts?
How could you compare an easily imagined scenario with evidence about how often the event occurs?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Heuristics and Biases The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel Kahneman)