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Mental Models

Saturday Evening in London

An anecdote that illustrates the concept of a free option, where an individual has the privilege to attend a party with no obligation and no cost, providing a potential upside with little downside.

THE IDEA

Saturday Evening in London

It is Saturday afternoon in London. I am coping with a major source of stress: where to go tonight. I am fond of the brand of the unexpected one finds at parties (going to parties has optionality, perhaps the best advice for someone who wants to benefit from uncertainty with low downside). My fear of eating alone in a restaurant while rereading the same passage of Cicero’s Tusculan Discussions that, thanks to its pocket-fitting size, I have been carrying for a decade (and reading about three and a half pages per year) was alleviated by a telephone call. Someone, not a close friend, upon hearing that I was in town, invited me to a gathering in Kensington, but somehow did not ask me to commit, with “drop by if you want.” Going to the party is better than eating alone with Cicero’s Tusculan Discussions, but these are not very interesting people (many are involved in the City, and people employed in financial institutions are rarely interesting and even more rarely likable) and I know I can do better, but I am not certain to be able to do so. So I can call around: if I can do better than the Kensington party, with, say, a dinner with any of my real friends, I would do that. Otherwise I would take a black taxi to Kensington. I have an option, not an obligation. It came at no cost since I did not even solicit it. So I have a small, nay, nonexistent, downside, a big upside.

This is a free option because there is no real cost to the privilege.

When to use it

  • Deciding whether to attend a social event when you have a last-minute invitation with no RSVP required.

  • When comparing financial options, account for the premium, contract terms, and amount at risk; the party invitation does not make a purchased option free.

  • Taking on a new project at work that could lead to opportunities but has minimal time commitment initially.

FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE

In practice

01

Saturday Evening in London

The narrator receives an invitation to a party in Kensington with no commitment required. They weigh the option of attending against other possibilities, recognizing that the invitation provides a free option with low downside and potential upside.

✳

A MOMENT TO REFLECT

Put it to work.

  1. What free options do you currently have in your life that you are ignoring?

  2. How can you create more free options for yourself in decision-making?

  3. Think of a recent decision you treated as a commitment. Could it have been viewed as an option instead?

CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION

Source texts

  • Antifragile (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)
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