Run, Don’t Walk
Taleb uses two brothers covering the same distance in the same time to illustrate his claim that health benefits can respond convexly to speed over a limited range.
THE IDEA
Run, Don’t Walk
Another illustration, this time a situation that benefits from variation—positive convexity effects. Take two brothers, Castor and Polydeuces, who need to travel a mile. Castor walks the mile at a leisurely pace and arrives at the destination in twenty minutes. Polydeuces spends fourteen minutes playing with his handheld device getting updates on the gossip, then runs the same mile in six minutes, arriving at the same time as Castor.
So both persons have covered the exact same distance, in exactly the same time—same average. Castor, who walked all the way, presumably will not get the same health benefits and gains in strength as Polydeuces, who sprinted. Health benefits are convex to speed (up to a point, of course).
The very idea of exercise is to gain from antifragility to workout stressors—as we saw, all kinds of exercise are just exploitations of convexity effects.
When to use it
Examining how the benefits and costs of exercise change with intensity.
Testing whether varying study intensity improves retention compared with a steady schedule.
Comparing the quality of creative work produced in bursts with work produced at a steady pace.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Walking vs Sprinting
In Taleb’s illustration, Castor walks a mile in 20 minutes while Polydeuces waits for 14 minutes and runs it in 6 minutes. Taleb argues that the different intensities can produce different health benefits despite the same average speed. The example illustrates his convexity argument rather than measuring those benefits.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
In what other areas of life might variation in intensity or effort produce convex benefits beyond the average?
What evidence would you need to determine the range over which varying exercise intensity is beneficial?
Think of a situation where a steady, constant approach might be suboptimal compared to a variable one—what would that look like?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Antifragile (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)