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Mental Models

Roman Politics Likes Optionality

The Romans developed their political system through experiential tinkering and learning from disasters, rather than through pure reasoning, contrasting with Lycurgus' rational construction of Sparta's laws.

THE IDEA

Political systems can develop through rational tinkering, with people keeping the better option. Taleb contrasts the Romans’ tinkering with design by 'reason.' Polybius in his Histories compares the Greek legislator Lycurgus, who constructed his political system while 'untaught by adversity,' to the more experiential Romans, who, a few centuries later, 'have not reached it by any process of reasoning [emphasis mine], but by the discipline of many struggles and troubles, and always choosing the best by the light of the experience gained in disaster.'

When to use it

  • Constitutional design, where historical experience and gradual reform may lead to more robust institutions than theoretical models.

  • Organizational policy development, using feedback from failures to iteratively improve processes.

  • Political reform after a crisis, leveraging lessons learned to make better choices.

  • Technological innovation, where incremental improvements (tinkering) often outperform revolutionary designs.

FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE

In practice

01

Polybius's Comparison

Polybius contrasts Lycurgus, who designed Sparta's constitution through reason without experiencing adversity, with the Romans, who developed their political system through a long process of learning from struggles and disasters, always choosing the best option based on experience.

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A MOMENT TO REFLECT

Put it to work.

  1. Think of a significant political or organizational change. Was it designed from first principles or evolved through trial and error?

  2. How can a system ensure it learns from disasters and chooses the best option each time?

  3. What are the risks of relying solely on pure reasoning versus experiential tinkering in complex systems?

References

  1. Histories — Polybius

CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION

Source texts

  • Antifragile (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)
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