RCA Starting Point: The Goal and Its Risks – How Much Risk Was the Titanic Taking?
Root Cause Analysis begins by identifying the objective, key risks, and tolerance for failure. Using the Titanic as an example, the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) framework is applied to assess the worst-case scenario and risk severity.
THE IDEA
RCA Starting Point: The Goal and Its Risks: How Much Risk Was the Titanic Taking?
With any RCA analysis, you usually start by considering the relevant objective, the key risks to achieving this and tolerance for failure.
The objective of the Titanic was to cross the Atlantic safely, and we can be sure there would have been little appetite for the loss of the ship or any loss of life.33 This appears to be a realistic goal because many ships were crossing the Atlantic then, but it was clear this was not a risk‐free ‘walk in the park’.34 In terms of the scale of the risk that the Titanic faced, we can use the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) framework.
Here, we can ask: what is the worst‐case scenario for crossing the Atlantic? Clearly, it would be to lose the ship and many, or all, of the passengers and crew. Using the FMEA scale, from the perspective of the captain and crew, the severity of losing the ship and its occupants would be ‘extremely high’ (9/10) or ‘dangerously high’ (10/10).35
Some might think, ‘That's too high a rating; we should adjust the impact for the mitigations in place’, but the FMEA mindset says: ‘One thing at a time. If you cross the Atlantic, you could lose a ship and all the passengers. It's incredibly unlikely, but you have safety measures precisely because of all that is at stake’.
When to use it
Conducting a root cause analysis after a safety incident in engineering.
Assessing project risks in a business initiative by identifying worst-case outcomes.
Evaluating operational risks in a healthcare setting using FMEA.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Titanic Risk Assessment Using FMEA
The Titanic's objective was to cross the Atlantic safely. Using FMEA, the worst-case scenario is loss of ship and all lives, rated 9–10 on severity. This high rating accounts for the stakes, even if probability is low.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
What is the primary objective in a project or decision you are analyzing, and what are the key risks?
How would you rate the severity of the worst-case scenario using the FMEA scale?
Why assess the severity of a consequence separately from its likelihood and the effects of existing safeguards?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Beyond the Five Whys Root Cause Analysis and Systems Thinking (James C. Paterson)