Premortem
A premortem is a decision-making technique that involves imagining a project or plan has already failed and then working backward to identify potential causes, counteracting overconfidence by forcing an ego-check.
THE IDEA
3. Premortems and Realistic Previews
Notice that these corrections for overconfidence have in common a kind of ego-checking, balloon-bursting effect. We run a premortem, which forces us to ask, “Our precious project has flopped. Why?” Or we add buffer time to a schedule because we’ve learned to distrust our own optimism. This ego checking is good for us; it helps to stack the deck in our favor.
Often, though, we instinctively do the opposite. When it comes to hiring a worker, for instance, the process is all about positivity and ego inflation. The worker presents a glowing portrait of her talents, and the employer presents a rosy portrait of the job. It’s like dating; the dirty laundry isn’t aired until much later. Because of this false sunniness, it can be difficult for both parties, employer and candidate alike, to get an accurate picture of the choice they’re making: “Can I tolerate this job?” “Can we tolerate this employee?”
The cost of a mismatch is high. For entry-level jobs—call-center representatives, food-service workers, and so on—it’s not uncommon for annual turnover to be as high as 130%. This means that if a call center has 100 jobs, then the HR team would need to hire 130 people every single year to keep the positions filled. That constant rotation causes enormous waste for companies, who must recruit and train workers who end up leaving in a few weeks. Not to mention the unnecessary misery for employees, who find themselves in environments they can’t abide.
In response to this problem, some companies are experimenting with a new approach to hiring—a balloon-bursting approach. Consider a Web site that was created in 2011 to allow people to apply for a call-center position. It exposes applicants to a set of cautions and warnings: “You will interact with frustrated and demanding customers every day. You will be expected to provide superb customer service and be friendly under stressful conditions.”
After reading some sobering information about compensation—“You will receive pay only for the time you spend taking customer calls!”—applicants are required to listen to an audio clip labeled “Sample Challenging Call,” taken from an actual call. The transcript of that call is not included in this excerpt.
When to use it
Project planning: Before launching a major initiative, conduct a premortem with the team to identify potential pitfalls.
Hiring: Implement realistic job previews (e.g., job shadowing, sample tasks) to reduce turnover and mismatches.
Schedule estimation: When estimating deadlines, add a buffer based on past overconfidence to account for unforeseen delays.
Personal decisions: Use the premortem to evaluate major life choices like buying a home or starting a business by imagining worst-case scenarios.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Realistic Job Preview for Call Centers
In 2011, a website for a call-center position exposed applicants to cautions such as dealing with frustrated customers, mandatory friendliness under stress, and pay only for call time. Applicants also listened to a sample challenging call before applying, giving them a realistic preview to reduce turnover.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Think of a current project or decision you are optimistic about. What are the top three reasons it could fail? How would you address each?
Consider a recent hiring process you were involved in. What realistic preview elements could have been added to improve matches?
How does adding buffer time to a schedule relate to the premortem? Can you identify a situation where you underestimated time due to optimism?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Decisive How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work (Chip Heath)