Overcoming the Four Villains of Decision-Making
The story of Joseph Priestley's career decision demonstrates how to avoid common decision-making pitfalls by widening options, reality-testing assumptions, attaining distance, and preparing to be wrong, rather than relying on a simple pros-and-cons list.
THE IDEA
The Story of Joseph Priestley's Decision
In the fall of 1772, Joseph Priestley faced a career decision: accept Lord Shelburne's offer as a tutor and adviser, or stay as a minister. He sought advice from Benjamin Franklin, who suggested using a pros-and-cons list (moral algebra). However, Priestley improved upon this method by avoiding four common decision-making villains:
- Narrow Framing: Instead of asking "accept or reject?", he generated new options such as negotiating better terms and finding other income sources.
- Confirmation Bias: He collected data from people who knew Shelburne, not just those who shared his doubts.
- Short-Term Emotion: He gained distance by seeking advice from neutral colleagues and focusing on long-term values.
- Overconfidence: He negotiated a lifelong pension to guard against worst-case scenarios.
Priestley accepted the offer and had a prolific seven-year period, including his discovery of oxygen.
When to use it
Career change decisions
Major purchases like a house or car
Choosing a college or educational path
Business investment or partnership decisions
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Priestley's Career Decision
The authors use Priestley’s decision to illustrate their four steps: widening options through negotiation, reality-testing through people who knew Shelburne, gaining distance through advice and longer-term goals, and preparing for a bad outcome through a lifelong pension.
Choosing a New Job
When offered a new job, instead of simply weighing pros and cons, generate multiple options (e.g., negotiate remote work, consider part-time consulting). Gather information from current and former employees of the company. Take a week to decide to avoid emotional pressure. Plan for contingencies like a trial period or severance clause.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Think of a recent decision where you only considered two options. How could you generate more alternatives?
When making a decision, have you sought advice from people with experience or just those who think like you?
How can you create distance from short-term emotions in an important decision?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Decisive How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work (Chip Heath)