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Mental Models

Norms and Counterfactuals

Social norms shape how we imagine and assess 'what might have been'. These counterfactual thoughts, in turn, affect our decisions and emotional responses.

THE IDEA

E. NORMS AND COUNTERFACTUALS

Norms (both descriptive and prescriptive) provide a benchmark against which actual outcomes are compared. Counterfactual thinking often involves imagining an alternative reality that conforms to or deviates from these norms. For example, a person who fails to meet a social prescriptive norm (e.g., being polite) may generate upward counterfactuals that focus on how they could have acted differently. Conversely, deviating from a descriptive norm can lead to downward counterfactuals that highlight how the situation could have been worse. The interplay between norms and counterfactuals is central to understanding feelings of regret, guilt, and gratitude, as well as judgments of responsibility and fairness.

When to use it

  • Understanding why people feel regret or guilt in social and professional settings.

  • Designing behavioral interventions that use norm-based counterfactuals to encourage ethical or safe behavior.

  • Improving decision-making by analyzing how perceived norms affect our evaluation of past choices.

  • In litigation or dispute resolution, assessing how parties' counterfactuals about 'what should have happened' relate to norms of fairness.

FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE

In practice

01

Missed Social Cue

Imagine someone accidentally interrupts a colleague during a meeting. The social norm is to let others finish speaking. The person later thinks, 'I should have waited for her to finish.' This upward counterfactual is guided by the prescriptive norm of politeness and often leads to feelings of guilt or embarrassment.

02

Near Miss in Traffic

A driver narrowly avoids an accident by braking hard. The descriptive norm is that cars usually stop at red lights. The driver thinks, 'What if I hadn't braked in time?' Imagining a worse outcome brings relief. The norm of safe driving is the reference point for this downward counterfactual.

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A MOMENT TO REFLECT

Put it to work.

  1. Think of a time you regretted an action. Which social norm influenced your counterfactual thought? How did that norm shape your feelings?

  2. Consider a situation where you felt relief after a close call. What descriptive norm made you realize the positive deviation?

  3. How might cultural differences in norms affect the types of counterfactuals people generate in the same scenario?

CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION

Source texts

  • Heuristics and Biases The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel Kahneman)
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