Norm Theory and Counterfactual Thinking
Norm theory explains how counterfactual thoughts affect memory and decision-making. The more an event sequence evokes thoughts of what might have been, the more memorable and common it seems, and people can anticipate counterfactual feelings to guide actions.
THE IDEA
Memory and Anticipated Regret
The proposed extension of norm theory makes two claims about memory and expectations. First, counterfactual thoughts evoked by an event sequence affect how available that sequence is in memory. The more powerfully an event sequence evokes thoughts of what might have been, the more available in memory the sequence is, and as a result, the more common the sequence seems. The second central claim is that the postcomputed thoughts and images that a negative event sequence brings to mind can be precomputed. People can anticipate the self-recriminations that an ill-fated behavioral sequence will evoke in them. Moreover, it is often these feelings, the intensity of which follows from various rules of mutability, rather than people’s estimates of the chances of a negative outcome that determine the actions they take. These are tentative claims about how imagined alternatives influence judgment.
[*] This is an edited and condensed version of a chapter that first appeared in Roese, N. J., and Olson, J. M. (Eds.), What might have been: The social psychology of counterfactual thinking (pp. 305–332). Copyright © 1995 by Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. Reprinted by permission.
When to use it
When evaluating past failures, consider how counterfactual thoughts might distort your perception of their frequency.
When making a risky decision, consider anticipated regret alongside the probabilities and consequences of each outcome.
In marketing, highlight potential regret of not buying a product to influence consumer behavior.
In therapy, help patients reframe counterfactual thoughts to reduce rumination.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Exam Regret
After failing an exam, a student repeatedly thinks 'If only I had studied more.' The failure comes readily to mind, and the student begins treating failure as more common than the available records suggest. This illustrates how imagining alternatives might affect a frequency judgment.
Umbrella Decision
Before going out, a person imagines the regret of getting wet if they don't bring an umbrella. This precomputed counterfactual feeling outweighs the low probability of rain, so they bring the umbrella.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
How might counterfactual thinking influence your memory of past events?
In what ways do you anticipate future regrets when making decisions?
Can you recall a situation where the feeling of 'what might have been' affected your actions more than the actual probabilities?
References
- What might have been: The social psychology of counterfactual thinking — Roese, N. J., and Olson, J. M. (Eds.) (1995)
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Heuristics and Biases The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel Kahneman)