Multiple Causation
Events are rarely caused by a single factor; multiple contributing factors interact. Humans tend to oversimplify by blaming a single person or cause, but understanding the web of causes leads to better analysis.
THE IDEA
HOW EVERYONE AND EVERYTHING IS LOGICALLY CONNECTED
ON 9 APRIL 2017 UNITED EXPRESS Flight 3411 was overbooked. The airline bumped a particular passenger off the flight, but he didn’t go voluntarily and was dragged off by security officers, sustaining injuries along the way. There was an uproar and opinion was characteristically divided about whose fault it was. The main opposing viewpoints were:
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It was United’s fault for their unreasonable use of force.
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It was the passenger’s fault for refusing to leave his seat when asked.
But there were very many contributing factors. Is a contributing factor the same as “fault”? Let’s face it, everything in life is caused by more than one factor. It’s just humans who are prone to trying to point the finger of blame at one factor, often one person.
If a student doesn’t do well in an exam, is it because they didn’t work hard enough, or because they were not taught well enough? Probably it is both of those things to some extent: a really excellent teacher will inspire students to work hard, but this sounds like placing blame on the teacher; a really good student will work hard even if they have an uninspiring teacher, but this sounds like blaming the student for being taught badly. There’s a cartoon that goes around periodically in which the “good old days” (whenever those were) are compared with today. In the panel for the good old days, a parent and child are in a teacher’s office, and the teacher is scolding the student for their bad grades. In the panel for today, the image is the same except now it’s the parent scolding the teacher for the student’s bad grades. There is, alas, some truth to this. The question of blame is wrapped up with the question of responsibility, and the counterargument is often that if we don’t blame any individuals, does that mean that nobody should ever take responsibility for anything?
Another more universal case is when relationships break down. Sometimes it’s mutual and both partners agree that it wasn’t really anyone’s fault, but alas this happens far too infrequently. Usually someone – or indeed both people – get very hurt, and each blames the other person. But in many cases (except in cases of abuse) there are contributing factors from both sides, and the key to understanding the breakdown is to understand the way in which the people were relating to one another, and the way their individual contributions were woven together to lead to the collapse.
In these cases, tracing the contributing factors and their connections can improve the explanation without settling every question of responsibility.
When to use it
Analyzing a business failure to identify root causes beyond individual mistakes.
Resolving interpersonal conflicts by acknowledging multiple contributing factors.
Evaluating public policy impacts by considering a range of social, economic, and political variables.
Conducting a post-mortem on a project to capture systemic issues rather than blaming team members.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
United Flight 3411 Incident
Cheng describes an incident on 9 April 2017: the removal of a passenger from United Express Flight 3411 and the dispute over who was at fault. Her point is to distinguish contributing factors—such as airline decisions, procedures and the use of force—from judgments about blame.
Student Exam Performance
Poor exam performance may involve preparation, teaching, circumstances and the way these interact. Identifying those contributions is more informative than assuming in advance that either the student or the teacher alone must be to blame.
Relationship Breakdown
In many relationship breakdowns, each partner tends to blame the other. However, except in cases of abuse, the collapse usually results from a combination of behaviors, communication patterns, and external stressors from both sides. Understanding the interaction of factors is key to grasping why the relationship ended.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Think of a recent event where you instinctively blamed a single person or cause. What other factors might have contributed?
How can you check whether you are oversimplifying causation in a decision you are making?
If responsibility is distributed among many factors, does that mean no one is accountable? How would you balance understanding with accountability?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- The Art of Logic How to Make Sense in a World that Doesn’t (Eugenia Cheng)