Look Out for Human Factors, Including Games Regarding Progress Updates and ‘Rabbit Out of the Hat’ Excuses
Be cautious of progress updates that highlight only achievements while ignoring remaining work, and watch for 'rabbit out of the hat' excuses blaming unforeseen setbacks. Also consider how past solutions may contribute to current problems.
THE IDEA
Look Out for Human Factors, Including Games Regarding Progress Updates and ‘Rabbit Out of the Hat’ Excuses
Remember that it's inevitable to hear the message ‘look at all the progress we have made’ but also pay attention to the question of ‘how much we still have to do’. This is important to bear in mind when we hear broad brush messages that suggest a homogenous picture, such as ‘We're winning the hearts and minds of people’. Human Factors thinking tells us that people do not respond like clones, there will be enthusiasts, detractors and then those in the middle. And there will be others who try to bypass, or game, rules or new initiatives.
Watch out for the classic ‘rabbit out of a hat’ excuse when things don't go to plan, i.e. ‘We could never have foreseen this reason for a setback’. For example, in early 2023, some Central Banks said, ‘We could not have foreseen that inflation would be high; this is due to external factors that no one could predict’. 5 To which the RCA and systems thinking response might be, ‘Of course, you could not have predicted the COVID‐19 (CV19) pandemic or the war in Ukraine. Still, you could have recognised something might come along that would knock things off track. So, what stress testing had you done to prepare for something unexpected, and do you think it was adequate?’
Also bear in mind the way in which past ‘solutions’ may be playing a role in current problems. Continuing the example of inflation rates in 2023: Is it possible that action, or inaction, by Central Banks in previous years has played a role in what we are seeing now (e.g. quantitative easing)? Is it possible Central Banks underestimated how difficult it might be to ‘turn the ship’ with interest rate rises as well as the spin‐off consequences on some financial institutions if rates were changed quickly?’6
When to use it
Reviewing quarterly business performance reports to avoid selective reporting
Evaluating government policy announcements that claim broad public support
Assessing project milestone updates to ensure balanced progress tracking
Analyzing economic forecasts and central bank decisions for hidden assumptions
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Central Bank Inflation Excuse
Paterson describes some central banks in early 2023 as blaming unforeseen external events for high inflation. His systems-thinking response asks what stress testing had been done to prepare for disruptions, even if their specific form could not be predicted.
Project Progress Updates
A project manager presents a dashboard showing 90% completion but only highlights completed tasks, ignoring critical remaining work. The 'how much still to do' question reveals the project is actually behind schedule.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
When you hear a progress update, what questions can you ask to uncover unmentioned challenges or remaining work?
Which unexpected setbacks could disrupt your work, and what preparation would help even if you cannot predict their exact form?
How might a current problem be partly a result of previous solutions that were implemented without considering side effects?
Often confused with
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Beyond the Five Whys Root Cause Analysis and Systems Thinking (James C. Paterson)