Least Plausible Hypothesis
Choosing more unreasonable explanations for phenomena over more defensible ones, contrary to the principle of parsimony (Occam's Razor).
THE IDEA
Least Plausible Hypothesis
Description: Choosing more unreasonable explanations for phenomena over more defensible ones. In judging the validity of hypotheses or conclusions from an observation, the scientific method relies upon the Principle of Parsimony, also known as Occam’s Razor, which states, all things being equal, the simplest explanation of a phenomenon that requires the fewest assumptions is the preferred explanation until it can be disproved. This is very similar to the far-fetched hypothesis, but the hypotheses are generally more within reason (i.e. no leprechauns involved).
Example #1: A man is waiting for his date, who is already 30 minutes late. His desire to see her and faith in her being the ‘perfect woman’ causes him to believe the least plausible hypothesis: “She must have been in a car accident on the way over!”
Explanation: The story is meant to illustrate choosing an explanation because it protects a desired belief. It gives no evidence about the date’s circumstances, however, so it cannot establish whether an accident, forgetfulness, or being stood up is most likely.
Example #2: Creationists have written volumes of books explaining how, given some divine intervention, a few broken natural laws, and accepting the inconsistency of nature, it could be possible that the universe is only 6000 years old. Accepting these theories would require the abandonment or radical reformation of virtually every science we have, as well as a new understanding of the term “fact”. So either all of that is true, or, the Biblical creation story, like hundreds of others in cultures all around the world, is simply mythology.
Explanation: Given the incomprehensible number and severity of the assumptions that would need to be made for creationism to be true, the explanation that the creation story is mythology, by far, is the most economical explanation.
Limit: Parsimony helps compare explanations that fit the evidence. A simpler explanation is not automatically true, and new evidence may favor a more complex one.
When to use it
Evaluating scientific theories to choose the explanation with the fewest assumptions.
Making business decisions when multiple explanations for market trends exist.
Debunking conspiracy theories by recognizing the number of assumptions needed.
In everyday reasoning, questioning whether your immediate explanation is the most probable or just the most comfortable.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Unreasonable Explanation for Being Late
A man waits for his date, who is already 30 minutes late. He thinks of her as the perfect woman and concludes: “She must have been in a car accident on the way over!” The example asks whether his preferred image of her is driving that conclusion. Without evidence about the delay, it does not establish which explanation is most likely.
Young Earth Creationism
Creationists have written volumes of books explaining how, given some divine intervention, a few broken natural laws, and accepting the inconsistency of nature, it could be possible that the universe is only 6000 years old. Accepting these theories would require the abandonment or radical reformation of virtually every science we have, as well as a new understanding of the term “fact”. So either all of that is true, or, the Biblical creation story, like hundreds of others in cultures all around the world, is simply mythology. Given the incomprehensible number and severity of the assumptions that would need to be made for creationism to be true, the explanation that the creation story is mythology, by far, is the most economical explanation.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
When have you believed a less plausible explanation for an event because of an emotional attachment or desire?
How can you apply Occam's Razor to evaluate competing hypotheses in your own reasoning or decision-making?
Think of a belief you hold that requires many assumptions. Is there a simpler explanation that fits the facts?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Logically Fallacious - The Ultimate Collection of Over 300 Logical Fallacies