Lean In to Confusion
A mental model describing how people often explain away evidence that contradicts their worldview, and advocating for embracing confusion and curiosity to better understand reality.
THE IDEA
Lean In to Confusion
Take a moment to look at the photograph on the previous page. Go ahead, I’ll wait.
. . . Now that you’ve returned, I have a question: Does that scene make sense to you? If you have no idea why I’m asking you that, then go back and look again, a little closer.*
Perhaps you had something akin to the experience that I and many other people had when we first saw this photo: Okay, it’s two raccoons on a hillside, with the sky above them, you think at first. But then something catches your eye, on the right-hand side of the image. Is that a . . . rock? In the sky?
I guess someone threw a rock, and it hasn’t hit the ground yet, you think. But in the back of your mind, you don’t feel completely satisfied with that explanation. It doesn’t quite fit. But what else could it be? A moment later, you notice another odd detail, this one much subtler. What is that thin white line on the side of the rock?
Then, suddenly, everything clicks into place: That’s not the sky. It’s water, reflecting the sky. The rock isn’t suspended in midair, it’s poking up out of the water. And we’re not looking up the hill at the raccoons, we’re looking down at them.
• • •
Our ability to change our minds depends on how we react when the world confounds your expectations. Sometimes, like in the case of the raccoon photo, we get curious and start reconsidering our perception of what’s going on.
More often, however, we react to observations that conflict with our worldview by explaining them away. Someone who believes “Nobody likes me” might shrug off social invitations from coworkers with the explanation, “They only invited me out of pity.” Someone who believes “I’m a great teacher” might explain away their poor teacher ratings by saying, “My students are just mad that I’m a tough grader.”
To some extent, this kind of sense-making is unavoidable. We couldn’t function in the world if we were constantly questioning our perception of reality. But especially when motivated reasoning is in play, we take it too far, shoehorning conflicting evidence into a narrative well past the point where we should have taken a step back and said, “Wait, am I misinterpreting what’s going on here?”
An especially tragic example of this phenomenon occurred during World War II. California governor Earl Warren was convinced that Japanese American citizens were plotting to sabotage the American war effort against Japan. When it was pointed out to him that there had so far been no evidence of a Japanese American conspiracy, he found a way to interpret the absence of evidence as further confirmation of his suspicions: “I take the view that this lack [of evidence] is the most ominous sign in our whole situation,” he said. “I believe we are just being lulled into a false sense of security.”1
This chapter is about how to resist the urge to dismiss details that don’t fit your theories, and instead, allow yourself to be confused and intrigued by them, to see them as puzzles to be solved, like the mysterious floating rock in the raccoon photograph. Over the next few pages, we’ll look at a series of case studies in which the world didn’t behave as someone expected, and see what a difference curiosity can make.
When to use it
In a team meeting, when presented with data that challenges the current strategy, instead of dismissing it, encourage the team to explore the anomaly.
When learning about a new topic, if you encounter something that doesn't fit with your existing knowledge, take it as an opportunity to deepen your understanding.
In scientific research, when experimental results contradict your hypothesis, resist the urge to explain them away and instead investigate the discrepancies.
In personal relationships, if a friend's behavior seems inconsistent with your perception of them, be open to the possibility that your perception might be incomplete.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
The Raccoon Photograph
A photograph initially appears to show two raccoons on a hillside with the sky above them, but upon closer inspection, the 'sky' is actually water reflecting the sky, and the 'floating rock' is poking out of the water. Closer inspection means leaning into confusion rather than explaining away odd details.
Social Invitations Explained Away
Someone who believes 'Nobody likes me' might interpret social invitations from coworkers as acts of pity, rather than genuine interest, thus maintaining their worldview despite contradictory evidence.
Earl Warren and the Lack of Evidence
During WWII, California Governor Earl Warren, convinced of Japanese American sabotage, interpreted the absence of evidence as confirmation of a conspiracy, saying the lack of evidence was 'the most ominous sign.' This exemplifies explaining away evidence that contradicts a theory.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Recall a time when you encountered information that contradicted your strongly held belief. How did you react? Did you explain it away or did you lean into confusion?
Think of a current issue where you have a strong opinion. What evidence would you expect to see if your opinion were wrong? How would you react if you saw that evidence?
Consider a situation where you felt confused or uncertain. How might leaning into that confusion lead to a better understanding?
References
- Earl Warren's statement on Japanese American conspiracy — Earl Warren
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- The Scout Mindset (Julia Galef)