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Mental Models

Interdependence

Interdependence is the mutual reliance that arises from specialization, where individuals, companies, and nations depend on each other to meet their needs, creating complex networks that offer both opportunities and vulnerabilities.

THE IDEA

Interdependence

It is not the similarity or dissimilarity of individuals that constitutes a group, but interdependence of fate. —Kurt Lewin

Specialization leads to interdependence. The two models are closely related, yet distinct enough to consider them separately. The more specialized an individual, company, nation, or other group is, the more reliant it must be on other specialists to meet its needs. We can’t do everything on our own. We are all dependent on one another, in webs of various sizes and complexity. These interdependencies create both opportunities and challenges.

As economies become more specialized, complex networks form among economic agents. In a famous 1958 essay, “I, Pencil,” Leonard E. Read encapsulated the astonishing interdependence of the world by positing that no one on earth knows how to make a pencil from start to finish. Even such a simple device, Read wrote, involves numerous specialists: loggers to harvest the wood, workers in a sawmill to cut it, designers of machines used to work the wood, and so on.

Read’s essay was intended to illustrate the concept of economic interdependence: how individuals, companies, and nations all become dependent on one another, forming complex trade networks. Global economic interdependence is considered beneficial for giving people more opportunities, disincentivizing war, and improving standards of living by reducing the cost of goods and services. If we all had to produce the ingredients to make a chicken sandwich ourselves, few people would be eating them. If we value our ability to buy chicken and buns, we will stay on friendly terms with at least two producers of each. The jobs we create in bringing together dozens of specialties to make and sell a chicken sandwich increase both the diversity of jobs available and the places in which people can do them.

There are a couple of downsides to economic interdependence. The first is that it can lead to dependencies that can be manipulated. If a country is dependent on another country for something it needs, it may be forced to tolerate bad behavior, not to intervene in the other country’s affairs, and to bow to demands to keep the relationship going. It’s easy to be a good partner when things are going well, but you want to be careful upon whom you are dependent in a crisis.

In addition, if one part of a supply chain breaks down (such as if one country faces a natural disaster or war), it can be difficult or impossible to find alternatives. This means that catastrophes now have more of a global impact. When the Chūetsu offshore earthquake struck Japan on July 16, 2007, Riken Corporation, an automobile parts manufacturer, suffered serious damage and briefly shut down production. Riken held a very large market share in the production of piston rings, which are necessary for the production of cars. Since most Japanese auto manufacturers use just-in-time inventory (meaning they carry little buffer stock), they were dependent on Riken’s consistent production. When Riken stopped sending piston rings, they also had to shut car production down.

If substitutes or buffers are unavailable, the failure of a small but essential component can stop production across an industry.

Interdependence can also lead to cascading effects. In the 1950s, Kenneth Arrow and Gérard Debreu looked at the far-reaching and nonobvious ripples that interdependence can produce in an economy. For example, Arrow traced some of the cascading effects when new oil fields were discovered in the 1930s. First, oil prices went down all over, and because none of us collect and refine our own oil, there was widespread reaction to the windfall our dependency created. Homes started to heat with oil instead of coal. Great; it’s cheaper! But then employment in coal mines fell, and the price of steel went up because coal became more expensive. We drove our cars more. Railway usage declined. Highways grew. Towns caught in the wrong location or dependent on the wrong resource stagnated or died out, while other towns boomed. New oil produced effects that cascaded far outside the oil industry.

Another note on interdependence is that we can only appreciate the ripple effects our actions might create if we’re honest about where we are truly dependent. Economic accounting has often focused on goods and services that are exchanged for money. The field has not been great about acknowledging, for example, how the whole economic system is dependent on the unpaid labor performed in the home, mostly by women. Although that is starting to change, the legacy of early economists such as Alfred Marshall, who argued against counting work in the home as part of the economic equation of a country, means that some dependencies are still overlooked.

Some linked problems require a coordinated response. Mapping dependencies helps identify who needs to be involved and where cooperation could help.

In personal life, we rely on family, friends and communities for practical help and emotional support. Ask whom you depend on, what support you provide in return, and whether too much rests on one person. Those questions can reveal both a source of help and a vulnerable relationship.

When to use it

  • A business leader mapping their supply chain to identify critical dependencies.

  • A policymaker evaluating the ripple effects of a new trade agreement.

  • An individual analyzing their career's reliance on specific industries to plan for resilience.

  • An economist modeling the cascading impacts of a resource shock.

  • A startup forming strategic partnerships to access resources and markets.

  • A supply chain manager mapping dependencies to identify single points of failure.

  • A community organizer building mutual aid networks.

  • An individual strengthening social ties for emotional resilience.

FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE

In practice

01

The Pencil's Interdependence

Leonard Read's essay 'I, Pencil' illustrates that no single person knows how to make a pencil from start to finish; it requires numerous specialists across the globe.

02

Chicken Sandwich Supply Chain

To make a chicken sandwich, we depend on producers of chicken, buns, and other ingredients, creating a diverse network of jobs and increasing availability.

03

Riken Corporation and Auto Manufacturing

When the 2007 earthquake damaged Riken, a key piston ring supplier, Japanese auto manufacturers using just-in-time inventory had to halt production, showing vulnerability in interdependence.

04

Oil Discovery Ripple Effects

In the account attributed to Arrow, oil discoveries in the 1930s affected fuel choices, coal employment, steel prices, transport and the fortunes of towns. The example illustrates how a change in one industry can have consequences elsewhere.

05

Business Ecosystem

A smartphone manufacturer depends on a network of suppliers for components, software developers for apps, and retail partners for distribution. A disruption in one part can impact the entire system, but collaboration can lead to innovative products.

06

Personal Relationships

An individual relies on friends and family for emotional support. During a crisis, those with strong interdependent relationships often cope better, but over-dependence on a single unreliable person can lead to disappointment.

✳

A MOMENT TO REFLECT

Put it to work.

  1. How does interdependence in your supply chain create both strengths and vulnerabilities for your business?

  2. Where in your personal life are you most interdependent, and how might a breakdown in one area cascade to affect others?

  3. What are the hidden interdependencies in your community that are often overlooked, such as unpaid labor or ecological services?

  4. In what areas of your life are you overly reliant on a single source, and how can you diversify to reduce vulnerability?

  5. How can you leverage your interdependencies at work to create greater value than you could alone?

  6. Reflect on a recent crisis: how did your network of interdependencies help or hinder you?

Connected ideas

Another lens can bring the same problem into focus.

Often confused with

References

  1. I, Pencil — Leonard E. Read (1958)
  2. Existence of an Equilibrium for a Competitive Economy — Kenneth J. Arrow and Gérard Debreu (1954)

CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION

Source texts

  • The Great Mental Models Volume 4 Economics and Art
  • The Great Mental Models Volume 4 Economics and Art
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