Influence Without Overconfidence
Galef argues that admitting uncertainty can be compatible with influence. Bezos’s candid discussion of Amazon’s risks illustrates how a persuasive case can acknowledge the possibility of failure.
THE IDEA
Influence Without Overconfidence
Before founding Amazon, Jeff Bezos estimated that his business idea had about a 30 percent chance of success. But surely he wouldn’t admit that to potential investors . . . right? Why would anyone fund an entrepreneur whose pitch was, “Just to be clear, I’m probably going to fail”?
As a matter of fact, Bezos did share his uncertainty with his potential investors. In every pitch, he informed his audience, “I think there’s a 70 percent chance you’re going to lose all your money, so don’t invest unless you can afford to lose it.”1
As his company grew, Bezos continued to speak candidly about the uncertainty surrounding its future. In a 1999 interview on CNBC, he said: “There’s no guarantee that Amazon.com can be a successful company. What we’re trying to do is very complicated.”2 By 2018, Amazon was on the cusp of becoming the most valuable company in the world. In a company-wide meeting that fall, Bezos told his employees: “I predict one day Amazon will fail . . . If you look at large companies, their life-spans tend to be thirty-plus years, not a hundred-plus years.”3
• • •
The common wisdom is that the more confidence you can muster in your beliefs, the more influential you will be. Confidence is magnetic. It invites people to listen to you, follow you, and trust that you know what you’re doing. If you look up advice on how to be influential or persuasive, you’ll find lots of exhortations to believe in yourself:
It is the person who has an unbridled sense of certainty that will always be able to persuade others.4
Every successful business leader has a strong sense of self-belief.5
No-one likes opinions with a “probably” in them. People want certainty.6
This would seem to bode poorly for scouts; if you’re being intellectually honest, you’re not going to have certainty about everything. Fortunately, as the example of Jeff Bezos suggests, the common wisdom isn’t quite right. His example shows that candid uncertainty need not prevent someone from making a persuasive case.
When to use it
Pitching a business idea to investors by being transparent about risks.
Giving a presentation on a complex topic where the outcome is uncertain.
Leading a team through a project with high ambiguity by sharing what is and isn't known.
Advising a friend on a decision with unpredictable outcomes by discussing the range of possibilities.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Jeff Bezos and Amazon's Uncertain Beginnings
Before founding Amazon, Bezos estimated a 30% chance of success and told investors they had a 70% chance of losing their money. He continued to speak candidly about uncertainty even as Amazon grew, stating in a 1999 CNBC interview that there was no guarantee of success, and in 2018 predicting that Amazon would eventually fail.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
When have you felt pressure to project more confidence than you actually felt? How did that affect your credibility?
How can you honestly communicate uncertainty without undermining your message?
Think of a situation where admitting uncertainty might build trust rather than diminish it.
Often confused with
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- The Scout Mindset (Julia Galef)