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Cognitive Biases

If It’s in the Book, It Must Be True

Erikson describes the difficulty of acting without complete information through his Blue personality profile. His advice is to weigh the risk and the cost of delay rather than wait indefinitely for certainty.

THE IDEA

“If It’s in the Book, It Must Be True”

“Can’t we go by our gut feelings?” Try saying that to a strictly Blue individual and see what happens. Gut feeling is the opposite of rational thought, and nothing could be more foreign to the Blue.

Wait a minute: Does this mean that you should never use your own intuition if you’re working with Blues? Even Blue individuals have what we call a sixth sense or “nose” for what can be right. The difference is that they don’t trust it because it can, of course, be wrong. The problem is that it’s impossible to prove anything with the help of gut feeling. The only thing that counts is the facts. And even the facts might not be enough—there may be more information out there that would change everything!

Conclusion: Tell your Blue friend that if he has to make a decision without all the facts, he can follow his gut. This can apply to work or ordering at a new restaurant. Speak clearly and loudly to the Blue, and explain that if he doesn’t make a decision he’ll end up going hungry. Prove that it’s better to do something rather than remaining paralyzed, waiting for more information.

Point out that it’s logical to use intuition in this situation because you don’t have all of the facts. Explain that the results will still be good—maybe just 95.3 percent of what they could be but still good. Help him to calculate risk but also to move on.

When to use it

  • Making a decision when data is incomplete – e.g., choosing a new technology for a project without a thorough manual.

  • Evaluating scientific claims from a popular book versus personal observation or expert intuition.

  • Discussing a proposal with a stakeholder who wants extensive documentation: identify the uncertainties that matter and agree on a decision point.

  • Balancing evidence-based practice with clinical judgment in healthcare or management.

FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE

In practice

01

The Restaurant Menu

A Blue personality refuses to order without first reading every review and analyzing the menu thoroughly, ignoring their initial craving (gut feeling) because it isn't backed by documented sources. They only trust the written descriptions and ratings.

02

Workplace Data Overload

A project manager keeps postponing a choice while requesting more documentation. The team asks which missing facts could change the decision and whether obtaining them is worth the delay. The issue is not whether information is written down, but whether further checking is useful.

✳

A MOMENT TO REFLECT

Put it to work.

  1. When has waiting for more evidence helped a decision, and when has it merely delayed one?

  2. How do you decide when to rely on documented facts versus intuition when information is incomplete?

  3. What might be the hidden costs of always insisting that 'if it's in the book, it must be true'?

Often confused with

CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION

Source texts

  • Surrounded By Idiots (Thomas Erikson)
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