HOW MANY WITTGENSTEINS CAN DANCE ON THE HEAD OF A PIN?
Skepticism can depend on the domain: someone trained to question assumptions in one field may accept conventional advice in another without similar scrutiny. Taleb illustrates this with philosophers and their pension investments.
THE IDEA
HOW MANY WITTGENSTEINS CAN DANCE ON THE HEAD OF A PIN?
A number of semishabbily dressed (but thoughtful-looking) people gather in a room, silently looking at a guest speaker. They are all professional philosophers attending the prestigious weekly colloquium at a New York–area university. The speaker sits with his nose drowned in a set of typewritten pages, from which he reads in a monotone voice. He is hard to follow, so I daydream a bit and lose his thread. I can vaguely tell that the discussion revolves around some “philosophical” debate about Martians invading your head and controlling your will, all the while preventing you from knowing it. There seem to be several theories concerning this idea, but the speaker’s opinion differs from those of other writers on the subject. He spends some time showing where his research on these head-hijacking Martians is unique. After his monologue (fifty-five minutes of relentless reading of the typewritten material) there is a short break, then another fifty-five minutes of discussion about Martians planting chips and other outlandish conjectures. Wittgenstein is occasionally mentioned (you can always mention Wittgenstein since he is vague enough to always seem relevant).
Every Friday, at four P.M., the paychecks of these philosophers will hit their respective bank accounts. A fixed proportion of their earnings, about 16 percent on average, will go into the stock market in the form of an automatic investment into the university’s pension plan. These people are professionally employed in the business of questioning what we take for granted; they are trained to argue about the existence of god(s), the definition of truth, the redness of red, the meaning of meaning, the difference between the semantic theories of truth, conceptual and nonconceptual representations … Yet they believe blindly in the stock market, and in the abilities of their pension plan manager. Why do they do so? Because they accept that this is what people should do with their savings, because “experts” tell them so. They doubt their own senses, but not for a second do they doubt their automatic purchases in the stock market. This domain dependence of skepticism is no different from that of medical doctors (as we saw in Chapter 8).
Beyond this, they may believe without question that we can predict societal events, that the Gulag will toughen you a bit, that politicians know more about what is going on than their drivers, that the chairman of the Federal Reserve saved the economy, and so many such things. They may also believe that nationality matters (they always stick “French,” “German,” or “American” in front of a philosopher’s name, as if this has something to do with anything he has to say). Spending time with these people, whose curiosity is focused on regimented on-the-shelf topics, feels stifling.
When to use it
Evaluating financial advice: Instead of blindly following a financial planner, apply the same scrutiny you would use in your own field.
Assessing political claims: Question politicians and pundits with the same rigor you would apply to scientific or philosophical arguments.
Making health decisions: Apply critical thinking to medical recommendations, just as you would to other important decisions.
Analyzing societal trends: When predicting societal events, check whether you are falling into the trap of domain-dependent belief.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Philosophers and the stock market
Professional philosophers, who question the existence of God, the definition of truth, and the meaning of meaning, still blindly trust the stock market and their pension plan manager. They apply intense skepticism to their specialized field but none to conventional financial advice, illustrating domain-dependent skepticism.
A Referenced Example About Doctors
Taleb refers to doctors in Chapter 8 as another example of domain-dependent skepticism, but the case is not included in this excerpt.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
In what areas of your life do you suspend skepticism and accept what 'experts' say without question?
How can you apply the same level of critical thinking to everyday decisions (e.g., finance, health, news) that you might use in your professional expertise?
What beliefs do you hold that might be based on domain dependence rather than consistent reasoning?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable With a new section On Robustness and Fragility (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)