Hot Hand Fallacy (Streak Shooting)
In the basketball records discussed here, the authors found little evidence that successful shots predicted further success. They also considered whether changes in shot selection or defensive pressure could conceal such a relationship.
THE IDEA
Discussion
It could be argued that streak shooting exists but it is not common and we failed to include a “real” streak shooter in our sample of players. However, there is a general consensus among basketball fans that Andrew Toney is a streak shooter. In an informal poll of 18 recreational basketball players who were asked to name five streak shooters in the NBA, only two respondents failed to include Andrew Toney, and he was the first player mentioned by half the respondents. Despite this widespread belief that Toney runs hot and cold, his runs of hits and misses did not depart from chance expectations. We have also analyzed the field goal records of two other NBA teams: the New Jersey Nets (13 games) and the New York Knicks (22 games). These data were recorded from live television broadcasts. A parallel analysis of these records provides evidence consistent with the findings reported above. Of seven New York Knicks and seven New Jersey Nets, only one player exhibited a significant positive correlation between successive shots (Bill Cartwright of the Knicks). Thus, only two of the 23 major players on three NBA teams produced significant serial correlations, one of which was positive, and the other negative.
The failure to detect evidence of streak shooting might also be attributed to the selection of shots by individual players and the defensive strategy of opposing teams. After making one or two shots, a player may become more confident and attempt more difficult shots; after missing a shot, a player may get conservative and take only high-percentage shots. This would obscure any evidence of streak shooting in players’ performance records. The same effect may be produced by the opposing team’s defense. Once a player has made one or two shots, the opposing team may intensify their defensive pressure on that player and “take away” his good shots. Both of these factors may operate in the game and they are probably responsible for the (small) negative correlation between successive shots. However, it remains to be seen whether the elimination of these factors would yield data that are more compatible with people’s expectations. Testing this explanation requires shooting data that separate sequential performance from changes in shot selection and defensive pressure.
When to use it
Evaluating claims of momentum in sports commentary
Designing experiments to test human beliefs about randomness
Understanding cognitive biases in everyday decision-making
Analyzing performance data in contexts beyond sports, like finance or productivity
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Andrew Toney
Despite being widely regarded as a streak shooter by basketball fans, his runs of hits and misses did not depart from chance expectations.
NBA Team Analysis
Across the three-team sample of 23 major players, the authors reported two significant serial correlations: one positive and one negative. The additional Nets and Knicks analysis supplied the positive case, Bill Cartwright.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Can you recall a time when you believed a player was 'hot'? How could you test that belief statistically?
How might shot selection or defensive pressure obscure evidence of streak shooting?
What evidence would distinguish a genuine change in shooting probability from a streak that can occur by chance?
Often confused with
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Heuristics and Biases The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel Kahneman)