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Mental Models

France Is Messier than You Think

Taleb challenges the claim that France’s achievements demonstrate the value of centralized design. He describes regional fragmentation and argues that effective centralization arrived only in the late 20th century.

THE IDEA

France Is Messier than You Think

Next we will debunk the narrative that France works well because it is a Cartesian rationalizing-rationalist top-down state. As with the Russians, the French were lucky that it was for a long time a failed aim.

I spent the past two decades wondering why France, as a country managed in a top-down manner by an oversized state, could fare so well in so many fields. It is the country of Jean-Baptiste Colbert, after all, the grand dreamer of a state that infiltrates everything. Indeed the current culture is ultra-interventionist, sort of “if it ain’t broke, fix it.” For things work—somewhat—in France, often better than elsewhere; so can France be used as evidence that central bureaucracies that repress municipal mess are favorable for growth, happiness, good science and literature, excellent weather, diversified flora with Mediterranean varieties, tall mountains, excellent transportation, attractive women, and good cuisine? Until I discovered, reading Graham Robb’s The Discovery of France, a major fact that led me to see the place with completely new eyes and search the literature for a revision of the story of the country.

The story was actually staring us in the face: the nation-state in France was largely nominal, in spite of attempts by Louis XIV, Napoleon, and the national education program of Jules Ferry to own the place. France in 1863 did not speak French (only one in five persons could), but rather a variety of languages and dialects (a surprising fact: the Nobel Prize in Literature in 1904 went to the Frenchman Frédéric Mistral, who wrote in Provençal, a language of southern France). The lack of linguistic integration—like the variety in cheese (of which there are about four hundred different types)—expresses the difficulties in centralizing the country. There was nothing ethnic or linguistic to bind the place—it was just the property of a king and a weak aristocracy. Roads were horrible and most of the country was inaccessible to travelers. Tax collection was a dangerous profession, requiring tenacity and sagacity. Indeed, the country was progressively “discovered” by Paris, in many cases after its colonies in North Africa and elsewhere. In a thick and captivating book, La rebellion française, the historian Jean Nicolas shows how the culture of rioting was extremely sophisticated—historically, it counts as the true French national sport.

Paris itself was barely controlled by France—no more than the Rio slums called favelas are currently ruled by the Brazilian central state. Louis XIV, the Sun King, had moved the government to Versailles to escape the Parisian crowd. Paris only became controllable after Haussmann in the 1860s removed the tenements and narrow streets to make large avenues that allowed for police to control the crowds. Effectively France was still Paris and “the desert,” as Paris didn’t care much about the rest of France. The country was only centralized after long programs and “Five Year Plans” of roads, rail systems, public schools, and the spread of television—a Napoleonic dream of integration that, begun by De Gaulle after the war, was only completed during the reign of Valéry Giscard d’Estaing in the late 1970s, at which point the decentralization started taking place.3 France might have benefited from its two decades or so under a large centralized state—but the argument could equally be that it benefited from the happy condition that the large state spurred growth and did not overstay its welcome.

When to use it

  • Re-evaluating historical accounts of nation-building to consider bottom-up factors.

  • Challenging assumptions about the effectiveness of centralized control in organizations or governments.

  • Understanding the complex interplay between culture and state institutions in shaping societal outcomes.

  • Analyzing the lag between centralization and its effects, as in France's late 20th-century integration.

FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE

In practice

01

Linguistic Diversity in 1863

Taleb reports that in 1863, only one in five French people spoke French, revealing a vast variety of languages and dialects that contradicted the narrative of a unified nation-state.

02

Riots as French National Sport

Historian Jean Nicolas documents a sophisticated culture of rioting in France, suggesting that insurrection has historically been more characteristic than top-down control.

03

Haussmann's Renovation

Taleb presents Haussmann’s rebuilding of Paris in the 1860s as a means of controlling crowds. He uses the example to challenge the image of a state that had long exercised effective control everywhere.

✳

A MOMENT TO REFLECT

Put it to work.

  1. What is a narrative about a country's success that might be oversimplified or incorrect?

  2. How can we avoid the cognitive bias of attributing outcomes to top-down design when bottom-up factors may be more important?

  3. What modern institutions or systems might be overrated in their effectiveness due to similar narrative fallacies?

References

  1. The Discovery of France — Graham Robb
  2. La rebellion française — Jean Nicolas

CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION

Source texts

  • Antifragile (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)
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