Fallacy of the False Cause
The fallacy of the false cause occurs when an argument assumes a causal relationship between two events without sufficient evidence, often mistaking correlation or coincidence for causation.
THE IDEA
Fallacy of the False Cause
The fallacy of the false cause is an argument that assumes there is a causal relation between two events, without providing supporting evidence. Events often occur simultaneously or consecutively, however, this does not mean that they are necessarily related. For example:
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The Chinese restaurant was robbed Friday night and again Saturday night. It must have been robbed by the same perpetrator.
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Floods and tornadoes devastated the small town of Green Hills. It is clear that a Divine Being was punishing the town for its non-religious practices.
In the first example, the assumption is made that due to the same location of the robberies, the cause of both crimes must be the same. Without further supporting information, however, it is impossible to know if the same criminal was responsible for both events. In the second example, the assumption is made that two consecutive events (the town’s non-religious practices and the floods and tornadoes) are causally related. But, like the first example, a causal relationship cannot be established.
To assess a proposed cause, ask what evidence connects it to the outcome and whether another explanation fits. A shared location, sequence, or coincidence alone is insufficient.
When to use it
In business, assuming that a marketing campaign caused an increase in sales without considering other factors like seasonality.
In health, believing that a certain food caused a headache because it happened after eating it.
In politics, attributing economic changes to a recent policy without evidence.
In everyday life, concluding that a lucky charm brought good luck because a positive event followed its use.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Restaurant robberies
The Chinese restaurant was robbed Friday night and again Saturday night. It must have been robbed by the same perpetrator.
Divine punishment for non-religious practices
Floods and tornadoes devastated the small town of Green Hills. It is clear that a Divine Being was punishing the town for its non-religious practices.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Can you think of a time when you assumed a causal relationship between two events that were merely correlated?
How can you test whether a causal relationship exists between two events?
What additional evidence would be needed to establish causation in the given examples?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Informal Logical Fallacies A Brief Guide