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Mental Models

El Desierto de los Tártaros (The Desert of the Tartars)

Drogo’s long wait in Dino Buzzati’s novel offers an analogy for sacrificing present opportunities to an anticipated event. The decision question is what waiting costs and when to reconsider it.

THE IDEA

El Desierto de los Tártaros

Dino Buzzati’s The Tartar Steppe (Italian: Il deserto dei Tartari) follows Giovanni Drogo, a young officer stationed at a remote fortress. He spends much of his life waiting for an invasion and the chance to distinguish himself. The cost of that anticipation is central to the story.

As a decision-making analogy, the story asks what happens when a hoped-for breakthrough dominates present choices. Waiting may mean neglecting relationships, other work, or opportunities that are available now. The comparison with Nero Tulip raises the same question about orienting a life around an uncertain future event.

When to use it

  • Career planning: Avoid spending years hoping for a specific job or promotion that may not materialize.

  • Investment: Don't wait for the perfect market crash or boom to take action; consider incremental strategies.

  • Personal development: Stop waiting for the 'right time' to start a project or habit; start with small steps now.

  • Organizational strategy: Be wary of teams that defer innovation while waiting for a big breakthrough.

FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE

In practice

01

The Officer Awaiting Battle

Giovanni Drogo spends decades at a border fortress hoping for a battle that will give his service meaning. By the time military action appears imminent, illness forces him to leave. His story illustrates the personal cost of the long wait.

02

The Employee Awaiting Promotion

An employee works tirelessly for years expecting a promotion that never comes. They sacrifice personal time and relationships, only to realize later that the promotion was never guaranteed and opportunities elsewhere were missed.

✳

A MOMENT TO REFLECT

Put it to work.

  1. What major event are you currently waiting for that might never happen?

  2. How has the anticipation of a future event caused you to neglect present opportunities?

  3. What small actions can you take today to break out of the waiting mindset?

Connected ideas

Another lens can bring the same problem into focus.

Often confused with

References

  1. The Tartar Steppe — Dino Buzzati (1940)

CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION

Source texts

  • The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable With a new section On Robustness and Fragility (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)
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