Counterfactual Thinking: The Bronze Medal Effect
Counterfactual thinking compares an outcome with what might have happened. The bronze-medal hypothesis suggests that silver medalists may focus on missing gold while bronze medalists focus on avoiding no medal. This excerpt describes how reactions were rated, but does not give the results.
THE IDEA
STUDY 1
We videotaped all of the National Broadcasting Company (NBC) coverage of the 1992 Summer Olympic Games in Barcelona, Spain. From this footage, two master tapes were constructed. The first showed the immediate reactions of all bronze and silver medalists that NBC chose to televise at the time the athletes learned how they had finished. Thus, the tape shows Janet Evans as she touched the wall of the pool and discovered she had come in second, and Jackie Joyner-Kersey after she completed her last long jump and earned a bronze medal. The second tape consisted of all bronze and silver medalists whom NBC showed on the medal stand during the award ceremony. For example, this tape shows Matt Biondi receiving a silver medal for his performance in the 50-m freestyle, and the Lithuanian men’s basketball team (in uniforms designed by The Grateful Dead) after they received their bronze medals. Each tape was shown to a separate group of participants who were asked to rate the expressed emotion of each athlete.
The proposed explanation contrasts the “upward counterfactual” of almost winning gold with the “downward counterfactual” of almost not winning a medal. The excerpt gives the rating procedure but no results, and observers’ emotion ratings alone would not establish what each athlete was thinking.
When to use it
Evaluating athlete performances and emotional displays in sports journalism.
Examining whether consumers compare a product with a better alternative or with having no suitable product, rather than inferring satisfaction from rank alone.
Improving feedback delivery in workplace settings by considering how near-misses affect employee morale.
Designing reward structures (e.g., in competitions) to mitigate negative counterfactual comparisons.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Olympic Medalists' Reactions
Researchers used footage from the 1992 Summer Olympics, including Janet Evans, Matt Biondi, Jackie Joyner-Kersey, and the Lithuanian basketball team, to have observers rate expressed emotion. The excerpt describes this procedure without reporting the ratings.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Think of a recent personal or professional outcome where you placed second or third. How did you feel, and did you compare yourself to those above or below you?
In what situations might upward counterfactual comparisons be more beneficial despite causing temporary dissatisfaction?
How could awareness of this bias help you reframe your own achievements or those of others?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Heuristics and Biases The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel Kahneman)