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Cognitive Biases

Counterfactual Thinking and Medalist Emotions

In the cited medalist studies, greater focus on almost finishing higher was associated with lower ratings of expressed happiness. The authors interpret this pattern as support for a counterfactual explanation of the silver–bronze difference.

THE IDEA

Discussion

The results of the second study provide support for the hypothesized difference in the counterfactual thoughts of the bronze and silver medalists. Silver medalists seem to be focused on the gold medal they almost won, whereas bronze medalists seem content with the thought that “At least I did this well.” This asymmetry can thus explain the observed differences in the athletes’ expressed emotions in Study 1. This can be seen most clearly through an analysis that combines the data from studies 1 and 2. Fifteen of the 22 athletes whose counterfactual thoughts were assessed in Study 2 were on the immediate-reactions videotape in Study 1, and thus were also rated on the agony–ecstasy scale. As we predicted, the two ratings correlated significantly: The more focused the athletes were on almost finishing higher, the less happy they seemed (r = −.56, p *< .*05). This relationship was also observed when the data for silver (r = −.51; n = 10) and bronze (r = −.34; n = 5) medalists were considered separately, although the sample sizes were then too small to yield statistical significance. Thus, by focusing on what they achieved, bronze medalists are rather happy; in contrast, a concern with what they failed to achieve makes the silver medalists seem less so.

In this study we did not have direct access to the athletes’ thoughts; we had participants infer them on the basis of the athletes’ comments. It is certainly possible, of course, that the athletes had various thoughts they did not verbalize. To overcome this limitation, we conducted a third study that examined bronze and silver medalists’ own reports of their thoughts following an athletic competition.

When to use it

  • Evaluating performance feedback to focus on what was achieved rather than what was missed

  • Managing team morale after a near-miss in a project

  • Personal goal setting and reflection to avoid dissatisfaction from counterfactual comparisons

  • Customer satisfaction analysis when a product almost but not fully meets expectations

FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE

In practice

01

Olympic Medalists' Emotional Reactions

Researchers combined ratings of athletes’ apparent counterfactual thoughts with ratings of their expressed happiness. Greater focus on almost finishing higher was associated with appearing less happy (r = −.56, p < .05). The association supports the proposed explanation, but the thoughts were inferred from comments and were not directly observed.

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A MOMENT TO REFLECT

Put it to work.

  1. How might counterfactual thinking affect your own satisfaction with achievements?

  2. Can you think of a time when focusing on what you almost achieved made you less happy?

  3. What strategies can help shift focus from near-misses to actual achievements?

CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION

Source texts

  • Heuristics and Biases The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel Kahneman)
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