Consider the Opposite

To consider the opposite, list reasons your preferred conclusion could be wrong and look for evidence that would test it. This gives you a way to question an initial judgment before seeking more support for it.

1. Confirmation bias is our default setting: we hunt for information that reinforces our initial assumptions, which are often self-serving. The hubris of CEOs can be counteracted by disagreement. We need the same constructive disagreement to counteract our own confirmation bias.
2. To spark that disagreement within organizations, we can institutionalize skepticism. The devil’s advocate, murder boards, and The Gong Show all license dissent. Another tool is Roger Martin’s question: “What would have to be true for this option to be the very best choice?”
3. When gathering information, we can ask disconfirming questions to uncover what we’re not seeing. Law students seeking a realistic view of a firm: “Who were the last three associates to leave? What are they doing now? How can I contact them?” iPod buyers, instead of just asking about features, asked: “What problems does the iPod have?”
4. Caution: Probing questions can backfire in situations with a power dynamic. Doctors, for example, are wiser to use open-ended questions: “What do you mean by ‘dizzy’?” [See footnote † for when more aggressive questioning is needed.]
5. Extreme disconfirmation means forcing ourselves to actively consider the opposite of our instincts. Keeping a marriage diary helps a frustrated spouse track positive actions, countering the bias that their partner is always selfish. The practice of “assuming positive intent” encourages interpreting someone’s words or actions in a more generous light.
6. We can even test assumptions by making a deliberate mistake. Paul Schoemaker’s firm won $1 million in new business by intentionally misinterpreting an RFP process to see what would happen. One woman took a chance on what seemed like a mistake and ended up marrying him.
7. Compare the evidence for the competing explanations. Considering the opposite is a way to test your view; it does not require accepting the opposite conclusion.

[*] Another technique for dissenters is setting a tripwire, à la David Lee Roth. A tripwire specifies circumstances that would trigger reconsideration of a decision. If you’re skeptical but lack the power to change a decision, encourage colleagues to set a tripwire (“If X happens, we’ll take another look at this”). Colleagues may agree to a tripwire even when they consider the triggering event unlikely. If it occurs, there is an agreed path to revisit the decision without an “I told you so.”

[†] There are times when doctors need more aggressive questions. For example, if a blood test suggests a patient isn’t taking critical medication, a broad “Are you keeping up with your medication?” often fails because patients may answer “yes” out of fear or embarrassment. Probing questions like “When was the last time you took your medication?” or “Roughly how many pills do you have left?” ask for specific information about adherence.