Change Bias (Noticing Variation Over Baseline)
Taleb argues that changing features attract attention while stable necessities recede into the background. This can make new technology seem more important than the infrastructure or resources on which it depends.
THE IDEA
Taleb connects enthusiasm for technology with two biases:
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Survivorship bias: Success stories are visible while failures disappear. Seeing successful, well-written novels does not show that good writing guarantees success; it confuses a possible necessary condition with a sufficient one. Similarly, surviving technologies reveal little about useful technologies that failed to spread.
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Attention to change: What varies can draw attention away from what remains important but stable. Taleb connects this with Kahneman and Tversky’s work on gains and losses, contrasting a loss described as 'you lost $10,000' with a portfolio moving from $785,000 to $775,000. He also contrasts frequently changing cell phones with water: technological novelty attracts attention, although dependence on water remains greater. Evaluating new technology therefore requires looking at failed implementations and stable dependencies as well as visible successes.
When to use it
Evaluating technology investments: Avoid overhyping new gadgets by considering their long-term utility against stable essentials like water or electricity.
Personal finance: When checking your portfolio, focus on overall value trends rather than reacting emotionally to daily fluctuations.
Career decisions: Don't be misled by success stories of a few entrepreneurs; examine the hidden failure rate before starting a venture.
Product design: Recognize that users may overvalue new features (change) while undervaluing core stability; balance innovation with reliability.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Stock Market Success Stories
People hear stories of someone getting rich in the stock market and building a mansion, but failures are buried, so investors overestimate their chances of success.
Novels and Quality
We see novels that have done well and are well written, and conclude that well-written novels will always do well, ignoring the many failed well-written novels now out of print.
Wealth Change vs. Absolute Value
Taleb contrasts 'you lost $10,000' with 'your portfolio fell from $785,000 to $775,000' to illustrate attention to a loss rather than the remaining wealth. Both descriptions concern the same change.
Water vs. Cell Phones
Taleb contrasts the attention paid to new cell phones with the less conspicuous importance of water. Novelty can draw attention away from a stable necessity.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
In what areas of your life might you be overvaluing what changes (e.g., new technology, trends) and undervaluing what stays constant (e.g., basics like health, relationships)?
How can you guard against survivorship bias when evaluating success stories in your field?
Think of a recent decision influenced by noticing a big change. Would your decision have been different if you had focused on the overall baseline instead?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Antifragile (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)