Causal Mutability
When imagining alternatives to an unexpected cause–effect pairing, people may hold the presumed cause fixed and vary the effect. The weightlifting experiment tests this tendency by asking which of two surprising measurements participants would change.
THE IDEA
Causes and Effects
We propose the hypothesis that, when people consider a cause–effect pair, alternatives to the effect are more available than alternatives to the cause. The tendency to presuppose causes is reflected in everyday conversation. When an observation departs from the normal covariation of cause and effect, the discrepancy is usually attributed to the effect rather than to the cause. Thus, a child may be described as “big for her age” but not as “young for her size,” and students may be described as overachievers, not as undertalented.
When a particular conjunction of effect and causal attribute is observed, the alternatives that are recruited should mainly consist of cases in which the same cause is followed by variable effects. A spectator at a weight-lifting event, for example, will find it easier to imagine the same athlete lifting a different weight than to keep the achievement constant and vary the athlete’s physique. We turned this hunch into a small experiment. The participants were given information that was described as a form sheet for the members of a club of weightlifters. The data were presented in two columns, stating the body weight of each athlete and his best achievement (the order of columns was varied in alternate forms). The numbers in both columns were in strict ascending order. Data for 10 athletes were given, with the 10th observation deviating markedly from the trend established in the first 9 cases. Half of the participants received a form in which the 10th athlete was only heavier than the 9th by 3 kg but lifted 30 kg more. In the other forms, the 10th athlete was 30 kg heavier than the 9th and lifted only 3 kg more. All forms included the following question:
Do you find the relationship between body weight and lifted weight in the last entry surprising? (Yes/No) If you do, please change it to make it conform better to what you would expect. Mark your change on the sheet and return it.
Most subjects found the entry to be surprising and changed only one of the two items of information on the critical line. As predicted, a substantial majority (86%) of those who changed one item altered the weight lifted by the athlete rather than his body weight. The order of the two columns on the sheet did not matter.
The differential mutability of effects and causes suggests an apparently untested hypothesis concerning the social comparison process (Suls & Miller, 1977). People should prefer to compare themselves to others who resemble them on causal factors rather than to others who resemble them on outcome variables. For example, a student should be more interested in discovering how well a peer of comparable industry did on an exam than in discovering the industriousness of a student who achieved a comparable grade.
When to use it
Performance reviews: Managers may fixate on output (effect) rather than underlying factors (cause), leading to biased evaluations.
In sports analysis, notice when an unexpected lift makes you question the recorded performance before questioning the athlete’s recorded body weight.
When students choose peers for comparison, examine whether they match on study effort or on grades.
Product quality: In manufacturing, if a defect appears, teams may be quicker to alter the product specification (effect) than to investigate the process (cause), potentially missing root causes.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Weightlifting Experiment
In a study, participants were given data on athletes’ body weight and lifting performance. When a final entry deviated from the trend (e.g., a small weight gain with a huge lift increase), 86% of participants who changed a value altered the lifted weight (the effect) rather than the body weight (the cause).
Everyday Language
People say a child is 'big for their age' (effect adjusted relative to a fixed cause: age) but not 'young for their size' (cause adjusted relative to a fixed effect). Similarly, students are called 'overachievers' (effect changed relative to perceived cause) rather than 'undertalented' (cause changed).
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Think of a recent situation where you observed an unexpected outcome. Did you naturally assume the cause was fixed and the effect variable? How might the outcome change if you considered altering the cause instead?
When a colleague’s output surprises you, which do you reconsider first: your estimate of their abilities and effort, or the output you expected? What other information could change your view?
When comparing yourself to others, do you focus more on similar causes (e.g., effort) or similar outcomes (e.g., grades)? How might this affect your motivation and self-perception?
References
- Suls & Miller (1977) — Suls, J. & Miller, R.L. (1977)
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Heuristics and Biases The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel Kahneman)