Calibration
Calibration is a learnable skill for accurately aligning confidence judgments with actual probabilities, and it improves quickly with focused practice in a specific domain, though it only partially transfers to other domains.
THE IDEA
PLOT YOUR CALIBRATION
Happily, calibration is a skill with a quick learning curve. A couple of hours of practice is all it takes for most people to become very well calibrated—at least within a single domain, like trivia questions.10 (Your calibration skill in one domain will carry over partially, but not completely, to other domains.)
When to use it
When making predictions about project timelines, calibrate your estimates by tracking your confidence and actual outcomes.
In sports betting, calibrating your probability estimates can improve decision making.
During medical diagnoses, calibrate your confidence in symptoms to reduce diagnostic errors.
When studying, calibrate your sense of how well you know material by quizzing yourself and adjusting your review time accordingly.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Trivia calibration practice
After a couple of hours of practice with trivia questions, most people become well calibrated in that domain—their confidence percentages match their accuracy.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
How can you practice calibration in your daily life?
In what domains are you most and least calibrated?
What strategies can help improve calibration across different domains?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- The Scout Mindset (Julia Galef)