Approach to Judgment
A framework for evaluating group decision-making by checking for substitution of easier questions, use of inside versus outside view, and diversity of perspectives to avoid correlated errors and improve judgment.
THE IDEA
Approach to Judgment
1a. Substitution
- Did the group’s choice of evidence and the focus of their discussion indicate substitution of an easier question for the difficult one they were assigned?
- Did the group neglect an important factor (or appear to give weight to an irrelevant one)?
1b. Inside View
- Did the group adopt the outside view for part of its deliberations and seriously attempt to apply comparative rather than absolute judgment?
1c. Diversity of Views
- Is there any reason to suspect that members of the group share biases, which could lead their errors to be correlated? Conversely, can you think of a relevant point of view or expertise that is not represented in this group?
When to use it
Evaluating the quality of decision-making in board meetings or project teams.
Checking your own reasoning for substitution when faced with complex problems.
Improving group diversity to avoid blind spots in strategic planning.
Auditing historical decisions to learn from failures in judgment.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Substitution in Project Planning
A team asked to estimate a software project’s duration instead debates which proposed features sound most appealing. Enthusiasm for the features takes the place of examining the work required.
Inside View Failure
A startup team planning a product launch relies solely on their own optimistic estimates, ignoring industry failure rates (outside view).
Lack of Diversity
A marketing team whose members all have similar backgrounds overlooks cultural sensitivities in a new market, leading to a failed campaign.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Did the group substitute an easier question for the difficult one they were assigned?
Did the group adopt the outside view for part of its deliberations and seriously attempt to apply comparative rather than absolute judgment?
Is there any reason to suspect that members of the group share biases, which could lead their errors to be correlated?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Noise A Flaw in Human Judgment (Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony etc.)