Appeal to Probability
A logical fallacy where one assumes something is true or will happen simply because it is probable or possible, ignoring the need for definitive proof.
THE IDEA
Appeal to Probability
A statement that takes something for granted because it would probably be the case (or might be the case). This fallacy conflates possibility or probability with certainty, erroneously concluding that because something could happen, it will happen, or because something is likely, it must be true.
Example: Murphy’s Law — if something can go wrong, it will.
Why it's a fallacy: It ignores the distinction between possibility and actuality; just because something is probable doesn't make it guaranteed. This often leads to unwarranted conclusions and poor decision-making.
When to use it
Risk assessment: mistaking possible risks for inevitable outcomes leads to overreaction.
Decision-making: choosing not to pursue an opportunity because a negative outcome is merely possible.
Legal arguments: when a prosecutor argues a defendant is guilty because they could have committed the crime, without definitive proof.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Murphy's Law
If something can go wrong, it will. The claim assumes a negative outcome simply because it's possible.
Event Cancellation
It might rain tomorrow, so we must cancel the outdoor event. This treats a possible outcome as a certainty, ignoring other factors like weather forecasts.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Can you recall a situation where you assumed something would happen just because it was possible?
How might this fallacy affect risk assessment in business or personal decisions?
What is the difference between a probable outcome and a certain one, and why is it important to distinguish them?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Wisdom Theory 100 Mental Models (2020) (Wisdom Theory)