Anticipating the Worst
When the stakes are high and failure could be catastrophic, invest in a comprehensive margin of safety by planning early and preparing for extreme scenarios, as illustrated by Jacques Jaujard's protection of the Louvre's art during WWII.
THE IDEA
Anticipating the Worst
We cannot have a backup plan for everything. We do too much in a day or a year to devote the resources necessary to plan for dealing with disaster in all our endeavors. However, when the stakes are high, it is worth investing in a comprehensive margin of safety. Extreme events require extreme preparation.
This mental model was exemplified by Jacques Jaujard, director of the French National Museums during World War II. His motto was “To lead is to anticipate.”
The Louvre’s Artwork During WWII
Before the war, many French people refused to believe the Nazis would target Paris and disturb its cultural treasures. But Jaujard, having witnessed the vulnerability of art during the Spanish Civil War, was less optimistic. He decided to err on the side of caution. Anticipating invasion, he developed a plan to evacuate the Louvre's collection.
Days before the war reached France, he closed the Louvre for “maintenance.” In reality, hundreds of staff, art students, and volunteers packed every piece. Paintings were rolled into tubes or transported in trucks for theatrical sets. A convoy of vehicles left Paris at night for castles in the countryside.
Jaujard’s forethought created a margin of safety. The Nazis stole an estimated five million works of art, about 100,000 from France. By dispersing the collection across multiple locations, he limited losses if one stash was discovered. He maintained proper temperature and humidity, relocated pieces when safety was uncertain, and labeled cases by importance for emergency prioritization. Curators sometimes slept next to the most precious works.
Rose Valland, an unassuming employee in the Nazis’ art-theft division, secretly recorded where stolen paintings went. After the war, her records helped repatriate over 20,000 items.
Thanks to Jaujard’s extreme prudence, not one item from the Louvre’s collection was lost or damaged. The artworks survived the war as a symbol of French resistance.
Key Takeaway
The future is seldom predictable. When the risk of failure is high, increase the margin of safety significantly. Start early, build redundancies, and plan for the worst-case scenario.
When to use it
A family living in an earthquake-prone area creates an emergency kit and a communication plan long before any seismic activity.
An investor maintains a diversified portfolio with a significant cash buffer to weather market crashes without forced selling.
A project manager allocates extra time and budget for critical path tasks when failure would jeopardize the entire project.
A hospital develops redundant power, water, and supply chains to ensure patient safety during natural disasters or pandemics.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Protecting the Louvre's Art During WWII
Jacques Jaujard evacuated the entire Louvre collection before the Nazi invasion, dispersing it across multiple castles, maintaining environmental controls, and labeling pieces by importance. Despite widespread art theft and destruction, not a single work was lost or damaged, demonstrating the value of extreme preparation when the stakes are irreplaceable.
Business Continuity Planning
A tech startup builds a disaster recovery site in a different geographic region, maintains real-time backups, and regularly tests failover procedures. Although the likelihood of a data center outage is low, the company invests heavily because downtime would ruin customer trust and revenue. Their margin of safety prevents catastrophic loss.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
What high-stakes projects or assets in your life or work require a margin of safety that you might currently be underestimating?
How can you distinguish between situations that demand extreme preparation and those where standard planning is sufficient?
Reflect on a time when anticipating the worst saved you from disaster. What systems can you put in place now to replicate that foresight?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- The Great Mental Models Volume 3 Systems and Mathematics