Analytic Power of a Group
Jones argues that combining a group’s analysis can improve judgment, yet members may resist its conclusions when their own views differ. A group’s advantage depends on the task and how its judgments are formed.
THE IDEA
The Analytic Power of a Group
Jones argues that experiments in group process show that, in most circumstances, the analytic power of a group of analysts is greater than that of any of its single members. For that reason, the group’s consensus judgments are likely to be more accurate than the judgments of any individual member. Yet when a group of people sits around a table and analyzes a problem, rare is the group member who believes that the other members collectively know more about the problem, understand it better, and can come up with a better solution than that member can, particularly when that member’s opinion is at odds with the group’s.
When to use it
Business meetings where team members estimate market trends or project timelines.
Comparing interpretations of evidence during jury deliberations.
Combining different perspectives during engineering or product-development decisions.
Crowdsourcing predictions for elections, sports outcomes, or stock market movements.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Sales Forecast
In an illustrative sales forecast, analysts estimate next quarter’s sales independently. Their average estimate turns out closer to the actual figure than any individual estimate, even though each analyst initially preferred their own.
Jury Verdict
Jurors begin deliberations with different interpretations of the evidence. Comparing those interpretations may reveal details one juror missed. Reaching consensus alone does not establish that the verdict is more accurate.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Can you recall a time when your individual judgment differed from a group's consensus? How did you react and what was the outcome?
Why might individuals be reluctant to accept that a group knows more than they do, even when evidence supports the group's accuracy?
In what situations might the group's analytic power be less than that of an expert individual, and how can you tell when that's the case?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- The Thinkers Toolkit by Morgan D Jones