An Accurate Picture of the Odds Helps You Adapt Your Plan Over Time
Reassess a plan as circumstances change or new information arrives. Galef’s account of Shellye Archambeau illustrates how revising a goal’s requirements can open an opportunity that the original plan would exclude.
THE IDEA
An Accurate Picture of the Odds Helps You Adapt Your Plan Over Time
Ever since she was in high school, Shellye Archambeau had been determined to one day become CEO of a major tech company.9 In 2001, she felt she was finally on the brink of fulfilling that dream. She had put in fifteen years climbing the ranks at IBM, becoming the first African American woman in the company’s history to hold an international executive position. After leaving IBM, she had done stints as an executive officer at two other technology companies. Shellye was ready.
Unfortunately, 2001 was also the year the dot com bubble burst. Silicon Valley was flooded with newly out-of-work executives with more experience and connections than her, all of whom would now be competing with her for CEO positions. Bad timing, indeed. Shellye figured she had two choices. She could stick to her original goal of aiming for a top-tier tech company and face even longer odds than before. Or she could amend her goal, dropping the requirement that her company be “top-tier.” Instead she could aim for a fixer-upper, a company that was floundering but easier to get into, and that she might be able to turn around with strong management.
She went for option 2, and she succeeded. Shellye was hired to be CEO of Zaplet, Inc., a start-up that was almost bankrupt at the time. Over the following fourteen years, Shellye grew Zaplet into MetricStream, a company of 1,200 employees worth over $400 million.
The reality is that there’s no clear divide between the “decision-making” and “execution” stages of pursuing a goal. Over time, your situation will change, or you’ll learn new information, and you’ll need to revise your estimate of the odds.
When to use it
Career planning: adjusting job search strategy based on market conditions.
Investment: revising portfolio allocations in response to economic changes.
Product development: pivoting a product based on user feedback and market data.
Personal goals: adapting a fitness plan when facing an injury or time constraints.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Shellye Archambeau Adapts Her CEO Goal
In 2001, after the dot com bubble burst, Shellye Archambeau faced increased competition for top-tier CEO positions. Instead of stubbornly pursuing her original goal, she revised her criteria to target a struggling startup (Zaplet, Inc.) and successfully turned it into MetricStream, a company worth over $400 million.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
When pursuing a long-term goal, how often do you reassess the odds based on new information?
What factors might cause you to stick to a goal even when the odds have worsened?
How can you distinguish between persevering and stubbornly ignoring changed circumstances?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- The Scout Mindset (Julia Galef)